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--- In gannsghost@xxxx, "topos8" <topos8@xxxx> wrote:
Bruce and I are on opposite sides of bond boulevard so I just wanted
to reiterate my views on bonds. These are the result of my price -
square - time calculations using the square of 9.
First, I am convinced the bonds are in a bear market which began last
November 1 at 112-18 (Dec '01 contract)(see my post GG #7510 of
October 31, 2001). My current estimate for the ultimate low is the 92-
94 range.
I have attempted to pick the tops of the big corrective rallies we
have had since November 1. On February 22 (GG#9410)(September '02
contract high 102-26), May 1 (GG#11547)(September '02 contract high
101-30) and May 31 (GG#12590) (September '02 contract high 101-21) I
said that the rally top had occured and that a move to new lows for
the bear market would begin.
The February 22 and May 1 calls were followed by big breaks but each
of these ended at a higher low (although the cash market low on March
15 was in fact lower than its December 18 low). Only a 2 day break
followed my May 31 message.
Today the September contract traded as high as 102-30, just a tad
above its February 22 top, and the cash market is still below its
February top. I think that the rally is over and that we are now
headed down about 10 points in the bond futures over the next few
months.
Carl
--- End forwarded message ---
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