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Sticking my neck out here a bit, however my work is suggesting that bonds
will move a bit higher ... specifically to the 103-24 area. While AGet
counts are displayed on the chart, I prefer my own counts which are labeled
W.A through W.C. The internal structure of the hourly and fifteen minute
charts appear to support the idea that W.C is not yet complete. Also of note
is that a cup and handle, which was forming on the weekly yield chart,
appears to be breaking down. Finally, CRB/US Weekly appears to be rolling
over. My own view is that bonds will rally as equities roll over into a
final low (and corresponding high in bonds) on or before 10July. Aside from
unmet price targets in equities, I am not yet satisfied with Wednesday's
high in VIX.
Earl
----- Original Message -----
From: "topos8" <topos8@xxxxxxx>
To: <gannsghost@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Thursday, June 13, 2002 11:13 AM
Subject: [gannsghost] Which Way Bonds?
> Bruce and I are on opposite sides of bond boulevard so I just wanted
> to reiterate my views on bonds. These are the result of my price -
> square - time calculations using the square of 9.
>
> First, I am convinced the bonds are in a bear market which began last
> November 1 at 112-18 (Dec '01 contract)(see my post GG #7510 of
> October 31, 2001). My current estimate for the ultimate low is the 92-
> 94 range.
>
> I have attempted to pick the tops of the big corrective rallies we
> have had since November 1. On February 22 (GG#9410)(September '02
> contract high 102-26), May 1 (GG#11547)(September '02 contract high
> 101-30) and May 31 (GG#12590) (September '02 contract high 101-21) I
> said that the rally top had occured and that a move to new lows for
> the bear market would begin.
>
> The February 22 and May 1 calls were followed by big breaks but each
> of these ended at a higher low (although the cash market low on March
> 15 was in fact lower than its December 18 low). Only a 2 day break
> followed my May 31 message.
>
> Today the September contract traded as high as 102-30, just a tad
> above its February 22 top, and the cash market is still below its
> February top. I think that the rally is over and that we are now
> headed down about 10 points in the bond futures over the next few
> months.
>
> Carl
>
>
>
> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
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>
>
>
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>
>
>
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