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The $5 mil is a true figure. Like operating anything else whether it be a
car, plane, lawn mower or a hammer and saw, it is the one using it that
either makes music or a mess. In the case of trading it is either retirement
and a wonderful life or life under a bridge with a shopping cart. Ego will
usually drive them to one place or another. Then there are those in between
that plug along really getting no where.
How many traders have set up a business plan? A course of action and money
management. Trading is the same as any other business. You don't have the
physical plant, payroll, taxes and other obligations of a retail operation,
yet you are one. You are like a giant Walmart, Loews, Federated, Safeway or
any other large retail out let. You do exactly the same thing they do. You
search for inventory that you might purchase in order sell at a higher
price. If it doesn't sell you put it on sale immediately and reinvest in
something else that will sell for a profit. The object is to generate a
profit. Some items of inventory will turn a large profit, others will break
even and others will go on sale at below cost. Your wholesaler happens to be
the stock, options and futures exchanges. They have thousands of items in
inventory for you and all priced to sell. Your temporary employee is your
broker, who you pay based upon piece work. Wait until the union figures that
one out. You don't have to do any advertising or wait for a customer to
come in the door. They parade the buyers and sellers before you every second
of the working day. There are short sales in the retail market the same as
there is in the stock market. It is just a lot easier in the stock market.
The other thing you have in the stock market that you don't have in any other
business. Liquidity. Some items are more liquid then others, but that is
your selection.
In businesses that are far less complicated then trading the bankruptcy rates
are tremendous. What makes a person with a couple of bucks in his jeans feel
that he can come in and make an easy living trading the markets. Because
someone was a brilliant scientist, doctor , lawyer, engineer or business
person, and has big bucks to play with, doesn't mean that he can become a
successful trader. The propaganda put out by the stock shows on PBS, CNBC and
the ads placed by various gurus selling something seem to imply that it is.
Whether the guru can make money is not the point. It is whether the people
that use his system or advice can make money that counts. The party that I
mentioned made millions trading the Hurst system alone, I couldn't make a
dime using it alone. But I saw that it had worth and found a way to integrate
into what I was using.
Many are quick to judge, because they don't believe. Can someone be 100%
correct? I guess for a period of time. A past student of mine made 21
winning trades in a row, so he told me, and wanted to know why he lost on the
22nd. I haven't made 21 winning trades in a row so he was operating the
system better during that period. Certainly not the teacher. Every
individual has his own personality, traits, ego and way of doing things. It
is those things that will lead to success or failure more then having the
wrong system to start. If the trader is intelligent he will find another
system if the one he is using doesn't produce the expected results . As they
say, " to do the same thing over and over again and expect different results
is insanity." I guess there are some that fall into that category that are
trading. Have a good week. Ira.
John Cappello wrote:
> Ira,
>
> $5,000,000 is a lot of Gelt for the early 70's in one year. I have no
> reason to doubt the veracity of your statement. It is the fact of the
> dependency upon the one using it that will make it vary and that is
> the crux.
>
> John
>
> ------------------ Reply Separator --------------------
> Originally From: Ira Tunik <irat@xxxxxxxxx>
> Subject: Re: [RT] SP foreacast
> Date: 06/03/2002 08:04am
>
> How good or bad the Hurst system operates is strictly dependent upon
> the one
> using it. I was first introduced to the system in the early 70s.
> The party
> that explained the system to me and lead me to by the book had made, I
> confirmed this with his clearing company, $5,000,000 in less then a
> year,
> using the system. That is why I took the time and effort to learn the
> system. I wanted to learn what its strengths were and what it lacked
> as far
> as my specific trading style. It was not the Holy Grail for me as it
> was for
> him. It did add a lot to my trading ability and has been part of my
> trading
> system since then. The system that I use has an 80% probability of
> success
> and I use cycles as a confirming indicator and it has worked very
> well for me
> in this fashion. I have also used it in a predictive manner on many
> occasions to my advantage. Over the years I have found flaws in the
> system
> as well as in my own trading acumen. As these show up, I try to
> correct
> them. Most systems work fairly well. It is usually the trader that
> is
> flawed. Good Trading, Ira.
>
> John Cappello wrote:
>
> > What was said may be an old troll to some but it is a barometer of a
> > person's committmeny and veracity to what is "invented".If one comes
> > up with a profitable method for even himself he proves it out first.
> > Edison also invented the light bulb because he was afraid of the
> > dark...and he did not die a pauper.
> >
> > Taking concepts at face value without forward life comparison is, to
> > me, a major fault in evaluation. I extruded PVC pipe on a lab
> testing
> > machine but it took two years before it could be proven to be used
> in
> > a large commercial unit.
> >
> > At one point the Hurst method was described as mechanical now it
> > comes off as needing other indicaters and perceptions. I am just
> > after the truth and refuse to be a blind follower...I lose my
> respect
> > for those who are.
> >
> > What is wrong with constructive criticism and asking for more
> > information. To me , absolutely nothing. The gif I posted shows the
> > same issue over 5 years and is just a "show me " request.
> >
> > I certainly meant no personal attack as was perceived.
> >
> > John
> >
> > ------------------ Reply Separator --------------------
> > Originally From: "Adrian Pitt" <apitt@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Subject: RE: [RT] SP foreacast
> > Date: 06/03/2002 07:23pm
> >
> > > -----Original Message-----
> > > From: John Cappello [mailto:jvc689@xxxxxxx]
> > > Sent: Monday, 3 June 2002 10:45 AM
> > > To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > Subject: [RT] SP foreacast
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > I, for one, have no interest in what Clyde is doing with the Hurst
> > > work. And no reference of that was made in my post to which is
> > > implied.
> > >
> > > Abstracts are valuable in science to see if there is an area of
> > > potential interest. I said I saw none for me.
> > >
> > > If Hurst died a millionaire using his work then perhaps I would be
> > > more enthusiastic. But I do not know that to be the case.
> >
> > Anyone in my book who trolls out the old "If his technique was so
> > great
> > why isn't he a millionaire" immediately loses all my respect as a
> > fellow
> > trader as the comment shows complete lack of understanding of people
> > and
> > life in general. Under John's theory Edison
> > was an idiot too...he invented the light globe for gods sake!! But
> > dare
> > I say he didn't make too much money from it. LOL
> >
> > Adrian
> >
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