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Alex,
Perhaps if I explain via an example you will understand, Its not
complicated.
Lets say I have a method that is capable of 100% accuracy as to
forecasting a future price level. The problem is I don't know when or
how long it will take to achieve. It may go straight up to my level or
it may hang around and do nothing for ages...or perhaps have a severe
collapse first then achieve my objective. ANYONE who has ever done
system testing knows that as soon as you introduce rules to control risk
your win% suffers as you simply cant wait or sit through those occasions
where your forecast is 100% accurate but you lose your money before it
gets there. This is why Hurst may in fact be able to achieve 90%
accuracy but whether that carries over to trading is another matter in
real time.
Adrian
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Alex Bell [mailto:alex_bell@xxxxxxx]
> Sent: Monday, 3 June 2002 7:57 PM
> To: Adrian Pitt
> Subject: Re[2]: [RT] Re: SP foracast
>
>
> Hello Adrian,
>
> okay. Just let us don't misuse words. To me (and I believe to other
> traders) "100% mechanical" obviously means "mechanical trading
> system". I hardly take seriously statements implying
> that "100% mechanical" means "not a mechanical trading
> system". As for general principle, I don't see how it can
> be measured to be right 90% if not mechanically i.e. by
> some objective method. Also, I see no reason to think about
> 60% winners in certain circumstances because no objective
> tests were shown. (letting alone that % winners itself
> means nothing in system testing)
>
> Best regards,
> Alex mailto:alex_bell@xxxxxxx
>
>
> Monday, June 3, 2002, 1:34:22 PM, you wrote:
>
> AP> Exactly...its important to understand that a general
> principle can
> AP> in fact be right 90% of the time when applied loosely or
> with broad
> AP> guidelines, but when you introduce strict mechanical
> rules and stops
> AP> the %wins will always suffer. its only a question of how much it
> AP> suffers and how well it maintains a good risk/reward
> ratio. If it
> AP> dropped back to 60% winners in such circumstances I would
> suggest it
> AP> to be very valuable.
>
> AP> Adrian
>
> >> -----Original Message-----
> >> From: Alex Bell [mailto:alex_bell@xxxxxxx]
> >> Sent: Monday, 3 June 2002 5:29 PM
> >> To: metatrader108
> >> Subject: Re: [RT] Re: SP foracast
> >>
> >>
> >> Hello Greg,
> >>
> >> You DID say first that "This is Hurst model in action.
> >> Proven to be 90% accurate. It is 100% automatic,
> >> mechanical and objective."
> >>
> >> And now you're saying that "It gives you an idea for the
> >> trade...", "just one tool, not a mechanical trading system".
> >>
> >> I wonder do you really understand what words "automatic,
> >> mechanical and objective" mean in context of trading or you
> >> use them just for a case?
> >>
> >> Best regards,
> >> Alex mailto:alex_bell@xxxxxxx
> >>
> >>
> >> Monday, June 3, 2002, 10:26:44 AM, you wrote:
> >>
> >> m> I can answer all these debating questions by saying,
> trading is an
> >> m> art and Hurst cycle indicator is a powerfull tool if you
> >> know how to
> >> m> use it. It ucovers geometric logic of the market for
> those who can
> >> m> respond to logic. It gives you an idea for the trade and
> >> magnitude,
> >> m> then you use other tools to nail it. So it gives right
> >> ideas 90% of
> >> m> the time
> >> m> This is just one tool, not a mechanical trading system.
> Not yet. I
> >> m> didn't say it is.
> >> m> If you refer to phisicality of the channel, you never
> understand
> >> m> what's for.
> >> m> By the way, there are two types of traders. One type are
> >> trading on
> >> m> reversals, confirmations, break outs and other lagging
> indicators.
> >> m> They kind of glued to the screens and jumping on orders
> >> like monkeys.
> >> m> Another type trade on pure idea of the market. They buy and sell
> >> m> before market reverse the direction.
> >>
> >> m> If you are a monkey trader, you'll have real hard time
> >> understanding
> >> m> other style. The only hope for you is to gradually
> evolve. 90% is
> >> m> possible as well as trading at tops and bottoms.
> >>
> >> m> If some books say don't trade tops and bottoms, perhaps you are
> >> m> reading wrong books. 90% of them are.
> >>
> >> m> Greg.
> >>
> >> m> P.S. Understanding things is an act of fortune. Good luck.
> >>
> >>
> >>
> >> m> --- In realtraders@xxxx, Ira Tunik <irat@xxxx> wrote:
> >> >> I don't know what is going on with Yahoogroups, but I sent this
> >> >> out
> >> m> at
> >> >> about 6:30 this morning and it never got posted. Here is
> >> the second
> >> >> try. Ira.
> >> >>
> >> >> I read all this ridicule of Hurst and his channels and wonder if
> >> m> anyone
> >> >> actually bothered to read the book, do the homework,
> and study the
> >> >> results or if they just like to draw lines and channels and
> >> >> postulate. He did not use the
> >> m> channels
> >> >> to project price, he used tangential extensions off of
> >> offset moving
> >> >> averages to project price and time. So anyone who is using the
> >> >> channels to project price or direction is going to be
> in a lot of
> >> >> trouble. You don't need a
> >> m> formula
> >> >> to draw the channels, you
> >> >> can get the same effect with a series of straight lines
> connecting
> >> m> the
> >> >> lows and parallels for the highs. It is not the lines, the
> >> m> extensions,
> >> >> or the ability to count that will
> >> >> make Hurst's system work for you, it is understanding what he is
> >> m> trying
> >> >> to prove and how it works and what its limitations are.
> >> If I am not
> >> >> mistaken, and I would have to go back to the book to
> confirm this,
> >> >> that time impacts price less then 30% of the time. That
> >> leaves you
> >> >> over 70% of the time
> >> m> blowing
> >> >> in the wind. It is the
> >> >> understanding of what is being used and its limitations and
> >> m> advantages
> >> >> that will help you in your trading and not guess work based upon
> >> m> what
> >> >> someone else says it is
> >> >> supposed to do. So if you believe that understanding times
> >> m> function in
> >> >> price action will help your trading by the book and
> study it. Try
> >> m> to
> >> >> understand what he has
> >> >> written not just read the words and look at the charts. Ira.
> >> >>
> >> >> Adrian Pitt wrote:
> >> >>
> >> >> Metatrader,Can you please define what you mean by
> 90% accurate.
> >> >> Please don't quote about past prices because every
> graph of Clyde's
> >> m> work
> >> >> from
> >> >> www.theswingmachine.com (as you have shown us...) are
> all curved
> >> >> fitted and rightly so..that's what Hurst bands do. So the only
> >> m> relevant
> >> >> statistic here is how accurate
> >> >> they are into the future. So you would have to do
> >> extensive walk
> >> >> forward testing. I'm assuming you have bought Clydes
> work and done
> >> m> this
> >> >> extensive testing to derive
> >> >> your 90% figure?? Assuming you have, I would love to
> >> hear a little
> >> >> more detail. Regards,Adrian Pitt
> >>
> >>
> >>
> >> m> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> >> m> realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >>
> >>
> >>
> >> m> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
> >> m> http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> >>
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>
>
>
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