|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
Hello Adrian,
Now we have 2 statements:
"Hurst may in fact be able to achieve 90% accuracy" (yours)
and
"[Hurst] Proven to be 90% accurate" (Greg's)
see they are different?
For example, I may in fact be able to make 10 billions a year. But,
regrettably, this is not "proven" :-)
Best regards,
Alex mailto:alex_bell@xxxxxxx
Monday, June 3, 2002, 2:27:56 PM, you wrote:
AP> Alex,
AP> Perhaps if I explain via an example you will understand, Its not
AP> complicated.
AP> Lets say I have a method that is capable of 100% accuracy as to
AP> forecasting a future price level. The problem is I don't know when or
AP> how long it will take to achieve. It may go straight up to my level or
AP> it may hang around and do nothing for ages...or perhaps have a severe
AP> collapse first then achieve my objective. ANYONE who has ever done
AP> system testing knows that as soon as you introduce rules to control risk
AP> your win% suffers as you simply cant wait or sit through those occasions
AP> where your forecast is 100% accurate but you lose your money before it
AP> gets there. This is why Hurst may in fact be able to achieve 90%
AP> accuracy but whether that carries over to trading is another matter in
AP> real time.
AP> Adrian
>> -----Original Message-----
>> From: Alex Bell [mailto:alex_bell@xxxxxxx]
>> Sent: Monday, 3 June 2002 7:57 PM
>> To: Adrian Pitt
>> Subject: Re[2]: [RT] Re: SP foracast
>>
>>
>> Hello Adrian,
>>
>> okay. Just let us don't misuse words. To me (and I believe to other
>> traders) "100% mechanical" obviously means "mechanical trading
>> system". I hardly take seriously statements implying
>> that "100% mechanical" means "not a mechanical trading
>> system". As for general principle, I don't see how it can
>> be measured to be right 90% if not mechanically i.e. by
>> some objective method. Also, I see no reason to think about
>> 60% winners in certain circumstances because no objective
>> tests were shown. (letting alone that % winners itself
>> means nothing in system testing)
>>
>> Best regards,
>> Alex mailto:alex_bell@xxxxxxx
>>
------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ---------------------~-->
Kwick Pick opens locked car doors,
front doors, drawers, briefcases,
padlocks, and more. On sale now!
http://us.click.yahoo.com/ehaLqB/Fg5DAA/Ey.GAA/zMEolB/TM
---------------------------------------------------------------------~->
To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
|