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Joe,
You ask the very question I pose. From what I have seen and what I
trade I would say that 55% to 65% accuracy over different periods of
time satifies me as long as profit factor and DD are acceptable to my
gut. The 90% accurate ones I have seen get chewed up by small
profits, slippage and commission.
Supreme Order is just one of many others to make such claims.
John
------------------ Reply Separator --------------------
Originally From: "Joe Duffy" <joeduffy@xxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: [RT] SP foreacast
Date: 06/02/2002 09:40am
What real time accuraccy is possible in the real world John? And be
profitable overall while attaining it?
>
> The essence of what I said simply is that I agreed with Ira. 90%
> accuracy is hogwash profitability in the real world, and that is my
> point.
>
> Chill out.
>
> John
>
>
>
>
>
> ------------------ Reply Separator --------------------
> Originally From: Clyde Lee <clydelee@xxxxxxxxxx>
> Subject: Re: [RT] SP foreacast
> Date: 06/02/2002 06:42pm
>
>
> Valid and well thought out criticism of one's work is something that
> we must accept if we attempt to add to the work of others.
>
> There are a total of 223 pages in J.M. Hurst's The Profit Magic of
> Stock Transaction Timing.
>
> There is no way that an "abstract" of this book can give the reader
> any idea of the amount of information that is contained therein or
> provide the basis of some kind of criticism of what I am trying to
> do in the area of the Hurst channel.
>
> The reference to "optimization" and "curve fitting" is definitely
out
> of line with what I have done. "Curve fitting" is exactly what the
> whole concept of Fourier analysis and projection is about.
>
> A Fourier analysis of recent price action becomes the basis to
> establish the location of the "Hurst Channels" in the near future.
>
> One might be interested in what Hurst has to say about "curve
> fitting" and how it can be of significant use in future trading but
> to do that one would have to make the effort and take the time
> to read Hurst's entire work
>
> What I do not understand is:
>
> Ira's interpretation:
>
> > to draw lines and channels and postulate. He did not use the
> channels
> > to project price, he used tangential extensions off of offset
moving
> > averages to project price and time. So anyone who is using the
> >channels to project price or direction is going to be in a lot of
> trouble.
> >You don't need a formula to draw the channels, you . . . . .
>
> I believe is wrong simply because it has been some time since he has
> thoroughly reviewed this massive amount of information Hurst
provided
> and has not understood that Hurst did do projections.
>
> Hurst DID advise a method of projecting where channels were likely
> to fall and DID advocate trading at the edges of these channels and
> did do an extensive study of such trading with a relatively few
> issues.
>
> I am of the opinion that if Hurst were active today and with the
> background that he had in the Fourier techniques that he would well
> be using those methods to project his channels rather than the
> "hand" sketching method that he used successfully.
>
> There is nothing in the way of OPTIMIZATION in any of the studies
> of the Hurst channels that I have presented. I have shown methods
> whereby we could obtain RATIONAL expectations of the length of
> important cycles and methods of extrapolating those into the future.
>
> All I would ask that if criticism is offered that it be done from
the
> basis of a very thorough study of Hurst's work and specific detail
> as to where I am not following the principals he has so eloquently
> laid out.
>
> Clyde
>
>
> - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
> Clyde Lee Chairman/CEO (Home of SwingMachine)
> SYTECH Corporation email: clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx
> 7910 Westglen, Suite 105 Office: (713) 783-9540
> Houston, TX 77063 Fax: (713) 783-1092
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> - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "John Cappello" <jvc689@xxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Sunday, June 02, 2002 4:38 PM
> Subject: [RT] SP foreacast
>
>
> >
> > I agree with the Ira post. I have read abstracts of Hurst's work
and
> > do not believe it is possible to create a mechanical creature that
> is
> > profitable in real life with a 90% accuracy.Invariably with such a
> > system the profit factors fall apart.
> >
> > Curve fitting and overoptimization has always fallen apart in my
> > observations. Plus I do not even know if Hurst traded or was
simply
> > presenting a hypothesis for testing.
> >
> > John
> >
> >
> >
> > ------------------ Reply Separator --------------------
> > Originally From: Ira Tunik <irat@xxxxxxxxx>
> > Subject: [RT] SP foracast
> > Date: 06/02/2002 01:10pm
> >
> >
> > I don't know what is going on with Yahoogroups, but I sent this
out
> at
> > about 6:30 this morning and it never got posted. Here is the
second
> > try. Ira.
> >
> > I read all this ridicule of Hurst and his channels and wonder if
> > anyone
> > actually bothered to read the book, do the homework, and study the
> > results or if they just like
> > to draw lines and channels and postulate. He did not use the
> channels
> > to project price, he used tangential extensions off of offset
moving
> > averages to project price
> > and time. So anyone who is using the channels to project price or
> > direction is going to be in a lot of trouble. You don't need a
> > formula
> > to draw the channels, you
> > can get the same effect with a series of straight lines connecting
> the
> > lows and parallels for the highs. It is not the lines, the
> > extensions,
> > or the ability to count that will
> > make Hurst's system work for you, it is understanding what he is
> > trying
> > to prove and how it works and what its limitations are. If I am
not
> > mistaken, and I would
> > have to go back to the book to confirm this, that time impacts
price
> > less then 30% of the time. That leaves you over 70% of the time
> > blowing
> > in the wind. It is the
> > understanding of what is being used and its limitations and
> advantages
> > that will help you in your trading and not guess work based upon
> what
> > someone else says it is
> > supposed to do. So if you believe that understanding times
function
> > in
> > price action will help your trading by the book and study it. Try
> to
> > understand what he has
> > written not just read the words and look at the charts. Ira.
> >
> > Adrian Pitt wrote:
> >
> >
>
>
>
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