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Lee,
Yes I look for divergence on the 5/17 for ABC
corrections. Flats or irregular corrections are a bit more difficult and
my comments are strictly for the zig-zag ABC's.
I have had little success, identifying a flat (or
an irregular correction) until the are well over and find one saying, "hey that
must have been a flat" :-)
don ewers
<BLOCKQUOTE
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----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
Lee Morris
To: <A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Monday, May 27, 2002 9:06 PM
Subject: RE: [RT] SPX index
forecast
Don,
do you normally see divergences btw A and C waves, in what oscillator and is
there a difference in the divergence depending on the corrective pattern
(flat, ZZ, expanded flat). Also have you seen a pattern of divergence in
triangles.
<FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>-----Original Message-----From: Don Ewers [<A
href="mailto:dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";>mailto:dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]Sent:
Monday, May 27, 2002 8:55 PMTo:
realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: Re: [RT] SPX index
forecastChris,I am not sure I agree. I
have seen your manual counts at times and comparedthem to ones I have
running on a similar chart and they are not the same.Although not pure
Elliott I think AGET's use of primarily the 5/35oscillator to find the
wave 3 (as well as the 10/70 to measure extremeextensions and the 5/17
to measure internal counts) lays out a wholediffernet picture than you
may be seeing? From my use of over 7 years Icould not do
counts correctly without these, including ABC's looking
fordivergence. When to that you add the wave 4 channel's and we
are not takingthe same things (warns of expanded count change).
Just my two cents, butmaybe consider adding them and you may find you
are counting a verydifferent count :-)Stand on my
statement, if doing "correct counts" wave C's have 5 waves.don
ewers----- Original Message -----From: "chrischeatham"
<nchrisc@xxxxxxxxxx>To:
<realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>Sent: Sunday, May 26, 2002 10:17
AMSubject: Re: [RT] SPX index forecast> I have concluded
that the 3 and 5 Elliott rules just don't hold true.> A wave 1 can be
a 3, a wave 5 can be a 3. These happen over and over> and over again.
As to zig zag c waves, how can you determine by> elliott rules if you
are not really dealing with abc-x-abc instead of> an abc? This gets
you to the same place with a zig zag termination of> a
correction.>> The other thing I have concluded is that
Andrews, Babson, etc.> geometry trumps elliott counts most of the
time.>> My two cents,> Chris>>>
--- In realtraders@xxxx, "Adrian Pitt" <apitt@xxxx> wrote:>
> Frost's work may be the bible, but its certainly not something
you> would> > use to make market analysis off. That's
like leaving school after> 6th> > grade and expecting to be
a university professor. Clearly> ridiculous.> > There is
only one work I regard as the bible, and that speaking from> >
almost 15 years of real time use. I'm speaking of Neely's book>
> "Mastering Elliott Wave Theory". I warn readers though it is
only> for> > the very serious Elliott student, and actually
not something I would> > recommend generally.> > As for
C's being zig-zags, that's only true if the C wave was part> of
a> > "B' or "X' wave triangle, or part of a Terminating
Triangle. There> are> > NO 3 wave C's in a
non-terminating impulse pattern...end of story.> To> >
suggest zig-zag C waves are common is absurd. How would anyone>
gain any> > benefit from EWT is they never knew whether the C wave
was going to> be a> > 3 or 5 wave affair???? Clearly
the theory would be useless.> > Thankfully, readers, you can be
rest assured Frost and Elliott were> > generally right. ALL
(except for those highlighted above) 'C'> waves in> >
'abc' are 5 wave affairs.> >> > Regards,>
>> > Adrian Pitt> > -----Original
Message-----> > From: Joe Duffy [mailto:joeduffy@xxxx]>
> Sent: Friday, 24 May 2002 10:49 AM> > To:
realtraders@xxxx> > Subject: Re: [RT] SPX index forecast>
>> >> > When Jack Frost wrote analysis part what is
now kind of the bible of> > Elliot (Prechter wrote the postcsript
part), he wrote as Elliot did> that> > all c's are 5's.
Having kept hourly dow charts by hand for about 8> years> >
(a while ago) I can say in my experience all C's are not 5's, and a>
> zig-zag C is common.> >> > ---- Original Message
-----> > From: Don <mailto:dbewers@xxxx> Ewers>
> To: realtraders@xxxx> > Sent: Thursday, May 23, 2002 11:22
PM> > Subject: Re: [RT] SPX index forecast> >>
> Lee,> > Wave C if and when it unfolds after a wave c:B
advance should not> be a> > zig-zag but a five wave decline
FWIW.> > don ewers> > ----- Original Message
-----> > From: Lee <mailto:LMorris@xxxx>
Morris> > To: realtraders@xxxx> > Sent: Thursday, May
23, 2002 9:45 PM> > Subject: RE: [RT] SPX index forecast>
>> > I think you are right on with both the short and long. The
only> > difference I have is that on the long range forecast I
favor the> > possibility of the move from sept to jan as wave A
(of B), since> jan as> > wave B (which is close to ending)
and the next major rally wave C> of B> > then the final
down move to at or below sept would be wave C of a> zig> >
zag. Practically it does not change how I would trade regardless of>
if> > you are right and this is a baby bull or the second option
that> this is> > a bear mkt rally. Either way the at a min
the upcoming rally should> be> > very powerful. The only
issue I have is with the VIX and P/C ratio,> at> > the
current levels I do not think that we have the fuel for this> kind
of> > rally so I would like to see the final move to your target
of 1030> be> > fast and furious to scare some
people.> > -----Original Message-----> > From: Hill,
Ernie [mailto:ernie.hill@xxxx]> > Sent: Thursday, May 23, 2002
6:55 PM> > To: realtraders@xxxx> > Subject: [RT] SPX
index forecast> >> >> > I am pretty new to
this list and this is my first attempt at a> > contribution. I
know that some of you are professionals and I> welcome> >
your comments and insights to my analysis.> >> > It
appears that the high turning point in the SPX that some of you>
were> > anticipating has been made. On 5-17 we closed at 1106.59
and then> again> > touched that level on an intra-day basis
the next day. I believe> there> > is a reasonable
possibility that the market could move back up near> the> >
turn high over the next couple of days before resuming the move>
down. I> > believe there is an even smaller chance that the market
may even> > slightly exceed the high and actually make the turn as
late as 5-28.> >> > My short term forecast:>
>> > I am anticipating the next low turn to occur within four
days of 6-> 4. My> > target price range is 1027 to 1034.
1.382 times the move from 5-7 to> > 5-17 yields 79.51 points
subtract this number from the high of> 1106.59> > and we
arrive at the low target of 1027.08. A 61.8% retracement of>
the> > move from 9-21 to 1-9 yields a target price of 1033.46. If
this> > projected down move does terminate in the projected target
range,> it has> > the potential to be the end point of the
correction for the entire> move> > from 9-21 to 1-9. And
could set the stage for a significant and> > sustainable move
up.> > My longer term forecast:> > Normally my technical
focus is on a much shorter time frame, but> when I> > saw
that we might be about to complete the correction of the move>
from> > 9-21 to 1-9, I thought I would take a little longer
term> perspective.> > On the attached and or pictured chart
(I will attempt to do both) I> have> > drawn a trend line
from the bottom of the first move down from the> March> >
2000 high connecting lows made in March of 2001 and September of>
2001. I> > have also drawn a trend line from the top of the first
upward> reaction> > to the initial down move from the March
2000 high and connected it> to> > the high made in May of
2001.> > As you can see these trend lines clearly define the
trading channel> of> > the bear market. Looking at this
chart the first indication we have> that> > the bear market
is over, is the penetration of the top trend line> and> >
the fact that the market has traded outside the bear market channel>
for> > most of this year.> > My current time frame for
the next low turning point is within four> days> > of 6-4.
This time frame will be reached on this chart in the next> one
to> > two bars. Notice where my target price range (1034-1027) for
the> next> > low turning point falls on this chart. If
during the time frame of> the> > next one to two bars my
projected price range is met it will fall> just> > above
the upper trend line at 1025.> > From an Elliott wave standpoint
the move from 9-21 to 1-9 could be> > interpreted as a wave one
impulse wave, followed by a simple A-B-C> zig> > zag
correction as labeled on the chart. With the "C" wave> terminating
at> > my projected low turning point, completing wave two, and
setting the> > stage for the usually dynamic impulse wave three to
begin.> > In conclusion what I see in the chart patterns and in my
analysis> is the> > early stages of a new Bull market, and
an excellent buying> opportunity> > dead ahead.>
> E> > DGLChart> >> >> >>
>
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