|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
Don,
It appears that you did not read the thesis for the
analysis which
I performed and reported.
We calculated the ratio of the length of any leg to
the length of the
leg JUST PRIOR to that leg.
I posted a chart showing the legs which you have
indicated and
certainly none of
those legs when measured relative to the prior
leg had anything <FONT face=Arial
size=2>close to a .382 ratio.
What the March high to the September low has to do
with that
concept of determining the ratio of one leg to the
prior leg
I cannot fathom.
This study compared data from turning points
established in a
very specific way and not a comparison of ratios
that might be
obtained by picking the control leg by one method
and the target
leg by another method.
This latter concept (and not the one the study was
based on) is
illustrated in the attached .gif where
a 144 bar detection method
was used to establish the high/low you specified
and a 21 bar
method used for the measured swings. Long way
from the
original concept.
With this approach the question arises, how do we
determine
the pivot picking method for the CONTROL leg and
how do
we determine the pivot picking method for the
TARGET pivots.
Clyde
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -Clyde
Lee
Chairman/CEO (Home of
SwingMachine)SYTECH
Corporation email: <A
href="mailto:clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx";>clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx 7910
Westglen, Suite 105
Office: (713) 783-9540Houston, TX
77063
Fax: (713) 783-1092Details
at:
www.theswingmachine.com- - - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
Don
Ewers
To: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Monday, April 15, 2002 7:35
AM
Subject: Re: [RT] Fibo predictions--Don
E. Questions
Clyde,
The results you posted beg the question why
did the "test analysis" run, not pick any of the dates I gave, all of
which were reasonably close to a .382 retracement fom the primary trend down
(March 2000 high to the September low)? It would appear what your
technique is analysing is not what is being used in trading, yet conclusions
are being drawn? How can one be so sure of the facts when this simple
test did not pick out 4 fairly clear hits 1/7/02 (or 1/7/02, 3/8/02 or
3/11/02, 3/11/02. and 3/19/02 off the primary top. It would appear the
analysis technique is not able to pick off a retracement of a prior multi-leg
move or am I miss interpreting what you posted. The fact remains a .382
level turned back prices in this isolated case and the analysis failed to pick
up the points?
don ewers
----- Original Message -----
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
Clyde Lee
To: <A
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Sunday, April 14, 2002 9:21
PM
Subject: [RT] Fibo predictions--Don E.
Questions
Before I answer Don's questions I want to make
it clear that I think it is time
to end this discussion.
It is clear that those of you who wish to believe that
FIB lines drawn on a
chart have more validity to indicate turning points
than do randomly
drawn lines will continue to believe such in the face
of overwhelming
scientific evidence to the contrary.
Those of you who accept the scientific method should
now recognize
that a thorough study has been made and presented and
clearly shows
that RANDOM lines are just as valid for picking
turning points as FIB
lines.
I believe that any more on this would be beating a
dead horse.
Clyde
Don asked:
Could you run a simple test from 3/24/00
(daily) to today and tell us whether the
following dates
came out at or near .382 retracement?
Answer:----NONE ! ! !
I ran the analysis using 3, 5, and 7 bar detection
concepts.
You will note that, as expected, the smaller the
interval used in the
detection the greater number of pivots are
detected.
I have shown the dates you listed followed by the
dates closest on
which we found picks by this method.
<FONT
face=Arial>
7 Bar Picks 5 Bar Picks 3 Bar
Picks1/4/02 01/02/2002
=0.5670
0.5670
1.14971/7/02 01/07/2002
=1.4340
1.4340
1.43403/8/02
3/11/02 03/11/2002
=1.9593
1.9593
1.95933/18/02
3/19/02 03/19/2002
=1.0413
1.0413
1.0413
7 Bar Picks01/02/2002 6 2
1114.53 1164.64 1136.23 0.567001/07/2002 2
9 1164.64 1136.23 1176.97 1.434001/23/2002
9 1 1136.23 1176.97 1117.43
1.461501/24/2002 1 6 1176.97 1117.43
1139.50 0.370702/06/2002 6 0 1117.43
1139.50 1077.78 2.796602/14/2002 0 6
1139.50 1077.78 1124.72 0.760502/20/2002 6
0 1077.78 1124.72 1074.36 1.072903/11/2002
0 7 1124.72 1074.36 1173.03
1.959303/13/2002 7 4 1074.36 1173.03
1151.01 0.223203/19/2002 4 9 1173.03
1151.01 1173.94 1.041304/11/2002 9 1
1151.01 1173.94 1102.42 3.1191
5 Bar Picks01/02/2002 6 2 1114.53
1164.64 1136.23 0.567001/07/2002 2 9
1164.64 1136.23 1176.97 1.434001/23/2002 9
1 1136.23 1176.97 1117.43 1.461501/24/2002
1 6 1176.97 1117.43 1139.50
0.370701/30/2002 6 0 1117.43 1139.50
1081.66 2.620801/31/2002 0 6 1139.50
1081.66 1130.21 0.839402/06/2002 6 0
1081.66 1130.21 1077.78 1.079902/14/2002 0
6 1130.21 1077.78 1124.72 0.895302/20/2002
6 0 1077.78 1124.72 1074.36
1.072903/11/2002 0 7 1124.72 1074.36
1173.03 1.959303/13/2002 7 4 1074.36
1173.03 1151.01 0.223203/19/2002 4 9
1173.03 1151.01 1173.94 1.041303/26/2002 9
1 1151.01 1173.94 1131.61 1.846103/28/2002
1 6 1173.94 1131.61 1154.45
0.539604/11/2002 6 0 1131.61 1154.45
1102.42 2.2780
3 Bar Picks01/02/2002 9 1 1139.93
1164.64 1136.23 1.149701/07/2002 1 7
1164.64 1136.23 1176.97 1.434001/23/2002 7
1 1136.23 1176.97 1117.43 1.461501/24/2002
1 6 1176.97 1117.43 1139.50
0.370701/30/2002 6 0 1117.43 1139.50
1081.66 2.620801/31/2002 0 6 1139.50
1081.66 1130.21 0.839402/06/2002 6 0
1081.66 1130.21 1077.78 1.079902/14/2002 0
6 1130.21 1077.78 1124.72 0.895302/20/2002
6 0 1077.78 1124.72 1074.36
1.072903/11/2002 0 7 1124.72 1074.36
1173.03 1.959303/13/2002 7 4 1074.36
1173.03 1151.01 0.223203/19/2002 4 9
1173.03 1151.01 1173.94 1.041303/26/2002 9
1 1151.01 1173.94 1131.61 1.846103/28/2002
1 6 1173.94 1131.61 1154.45
0.539604/08/2002 6 0 1131.61 1154.45
1111.79 1.867804/10/2002 0 6 1154.45
1111.79 1131.76 0.4681
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -Clyde
Lee
Chairman/CEO (Home of
SwingMachine)SYTECH
Corporation email: <A
href="mailto:clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx";>clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx 7910
Westglen, Suite 105
Office: (713) 783-9540Houston, TX
77063
Fax: (713) 783-1092Details
at:
www.theswingmachine.com- -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
Don
Ewers
To: <A
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Sunday, April 14, 2002 11:30
AM
Subject: Re: Re[6]: [RT] Fibo
predictions
Clyde,
Your reply below would indicate that multiple
leg moves and retracements are taken into account if I understand it
correctly?
Could you run a simple test from 3/24/00
(daily) to today and tell us whether the following dates came out at or
near .382 retracement?
1/4/02
1/7/02
3/8/02
3/11/02
3/18/02
3/19/02
I too use fibs frequently, in fact it is hard
to look a chart and not see hits that occur along with other things I
use. Makes me a bit concerned that the analysis "may" not be doing
what it is supposed to be doing. Can you do this simple test to put
my mind at ease about the above and post the output results in text
fashion (to see if these are picked up as .382 or thereabouts) and by a
similar chart to see the distribution?
Thanks in advance,
don ewers
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px"><FONT
face=Arial size=2> To
unsubscribe from this group, send an email
to:realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxYour
use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the <A
href="http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/";>Yahoo! Terms of Service.
To
unsubscribe from this group, send an email
to:realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxYour
use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the <A
href="http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/";>Yahoo! Terms of Service.
Yahoo! Groups Sponsor
ADVERTISEMENT
To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of Service.
Attachment:
Description: "junk.gif"
|