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Neil,
Would you mind elaborating on Fibonacci "Agreement"? I've not heard that term before.
Eliot
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Eliot Kaplan
email; eliot@xxxxxxx
web: http://www.isu.com
voice: 310.455.3810, #2
From: Neal Hughes <neal@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Reply-To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Date: Sun, 14 Apr 2002 21:34:02 -0700
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: Re: [RT] $1000.00 CHALLANGE
Yes, as Jim says, the extreme highs and lows are critical. Also,
it is vital that swings from multiple time-frames are used. Very important.
>From practical experience, I can say that using swing-points from
charts of just one time-frame is going to provide mediocre results.
If you want to prove that Fib trading is "BS", that is a good
approach (smile).
In addition, Fibonacci expansions are as important as Fibonacci
retracements. Another very important aspect is the concept
of Fibonacci AGREEMENT as well as Fibonacci CONFLUENCE.
As good traders know, not every Fibonacci level is equal (some
Fib levels "hold", others "break". The paragraph prior to this one
names the concepts needed to best judge the merits of different
Fib levels.
My other email of this month contains very important components
of successful Fibonacci trading (no need to duplicate here).
-Neal.
At 08:01 PM 4/14/2002 -0700, you wrote:
Clyde,
Thanks for your help in trying to define swings. As you have determined it is not easy. Your coding does not always pick up the lowest low or highest high of the swing and does not appear to comply with the close above or below rule. Generaly inside bars are ignored since they tell us nothing acbout the change in sentiment of the trading population For purposes of the test I would expect the person to define there own confirmation based on their analysis. If the market they are predicting is going up and a day happens with a lower high and lower low and a close below the low of the bar with the highest high, they would email the prediction for the next low pivot.
I believe every bar is an indication of the range in perceived value of the trading population. Once a low is broken in an up trending market, we have an indication of a change in sentiment i.e the trading population is willing to accept lower prices. The close below the low rule is an indication of the professionals view and confirms the change in sentiment.
I had a guy trying to code these rules in tradestation for some time now with little success. From the looks of your Swing Machine, you are a much better code writer than he. I am trying to adapt my Near Impulse theory for time reversals to Tradestation.
Jim ----- Original Message ----- From: Clyde Lee <mailto:clydelee@xxxxxxxxxx> To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx Sent: Sunday, April 14, 2002 2:08 PM Subject: Re: [RT] $1000.00 CHALLANGE
Jim, Need a bit more information in the definition of a swing pivot. Using your definition, I created the attached chart in which I used a 2 bar and a 3 bar lookback following your logic. As you can see there is a difference and consequently it would appear that we would have to give this technique a 3 bar lookback for it to be nearest correct. This chart was made using the same program that I used for creating the data for the FIB analysis with the exception of replacing the call to Swing_Lee_Simple with a call to a routine which I call Swing_White_Simple that has been programmed with your logic. Is what is shown what you expect ? ? ? ? Note that there is a green line wandering through the data connecting the characters b (for bottom) and t (for top) which shows the point at which a swing is detected and it is from that point that projections must be made. Sorry for the large size .gif but it is necessary to show the details of such study. Clyde - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Clyde Lee Chairman/CEO (Home of SwingMachine) SYTECH Corporation email: clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx 7910 Westglen, Suite 105 Office: (713) 783-9540 Houston, TX 77063 Fax: (713) 783-1092 Details at: www.theswingmachine.com <http://www.theswingmachine.com> - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ----- Original Message ----- From: Jim White <mailto:jwhite43@xxxxxxx> To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx Sent: Saturday, April 13, 2002 11:28 PM Subject: Re: [RT] $1000.00 CHALLANGE
Clyde, You are correct. The definition of a reversal is as follows: For a high pivot, the reversal is confirmed by a close below the low of the bar with the highest high. For a low pivot, the reversal is confirmed by the close above the high of the bar with the lowest low. Prediction of the next reversal high or low must be posted with email date of that day. And yes I am restricting the challenge to daily data as a matter of practicality. Jim ----- Original Message ----- From: Clyde Lee <mailto:clydelee@xxxxxxxxxx> To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx Sent: Saturday, April 13, 2002 6:45 PM Subject: Re: [RT] $1000.00 CHALLANGE
Jim, For this to be a viable challenge you must specify what is a "REVERSAL" for purposes of this test. The definition must be one for which an algorithm can be written to detect all reversals that are to be considered and such must be a reasonable approach to determining such reversals. Until this definition exists then it would be foolish to begin to try to predict undefined reversals. From your post it would seem that you are looking at daily data. Is that a correct assumption or are other time intervals for price measurement to be considered. Clyde - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Clyde Lee Chairman/CEO (Home of SwingMachine) SYTECH Corporation email: clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx 7910 Westglen, Suite 105 Office: (713) 783-9540 Houston, TX 77063 Fax: (713) 783-1092 Details at: www.theswingmachine.com <http://www.theswingmachine.com> - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ----- Original Message ----- From: Jim White <mailto:jwhite43@xxxxxxx> To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx Sent: Saturday, April 13, 2002 8:36 PM Subject: [RT] $1000.00 CHALLANGE
Perhaps my challenge went unnoticed. I believe that predicting the price of a reversal is not possible. If anyone can prove a method that will predict the reversal price of a market within 50% of the five day average range, 80% % of the time . I will pay you $1000.00. The rules are simple. Predict ahead of time by this list the reversal price for 100 observations and have 80 % or more within actual reversal price +/- 25% of average daily range. Are there any takers? Jim White
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