|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
Clyde,
I did read it which is why I directly asked the
following question in a prior post, that perhaps was overlooked?
"Clyde,
Just a thought but if I understand your chart
correctly, it is comparing just "the ratio of any leg to prior leg difference in
price".
What if the prior leg has "multiple legs" down like
the SP cash from the high 1552.87 to the Sept low 969.73 and the resulting
reaction up leg is multiple legs? Does your study
just cover just single swings to the prior swing and not multiple legs to
multiple swing leg retracements?
don ewers"
Unless I misinterpreted the response, I believe your following reply
was:
"This analysis has been run from very minor swings
to very
major swings and the same distribution
exists."
Don't get me wrong, an analysis that takes into account all multi-leg
swings would be a very difficult endeavor, which is why I was questioning the
analysis?
I understand your point and I hope you understand mine, that the analysis
presented is not the way fibs are frequently used by traders who use them. Take
a look at the chart I posted (it is attached here again). It does not seem
like a big reach for someone to "fathom" why someone would be looking at a the
.382 retracement level? As you have indicated it would not show up in the
analysis that was done.
don ewers
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">-----
Original Message -----
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
Clyde Lee
To: <A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Monday, April 15, 2002 8:34
AM
Subject: Re: [RT] Fibo predictions--Don
E. Questions
Don,
It appears that you did not read the thesis for
the analysis which
I performed and reported.
We calculated the ratio of the length of any leg
to the length of the
leg JUST PRIOR to that leg.
I posted a chart showing the legs which you have
indicated and
certainly none of
those legs when measured relative to the prior
leg had anything <FONT face=Arial
size=2>close to a .382 ratio.
What the March high to the September low has to
do with that
concept of determining the ratio of one leg to
the prior leg
I cannot fathom.
This study compared data from turning points
established in a
very specific way and not a comparison of ratios
that might be
obtained by picking the control leg by one method
and the target
leg by another method.
This latter concept (and not the one the study
was based on) is
illustrated in the attached .gif
where a 144 bar detection method
was used to establish the high/low you specified
and a 21 bar
method used for the measured swings. Long
way from the
original concept.
With this approach the question arises, how do we
determine
the pivot picking method for the CONTROL leg and
how do
we determine the pivot picking method for the
TARGET pivots.
Clyde
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -Clyde
Lee
Chairman/CEO (Home of
SwingMachine)SYTECH
Corporation email: <A
href="mailto:clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx";>clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx 7910
Westglen, Suite 105
Office: (713) 783-9540Houston, TX
77063
Fax: (713) 783-1092Details
at:
www.theswingmachine.com- - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
Don
Ewers
To: <A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Monday, April 15, 2002 7:35
AM
Subject: Re: [RT] Fibo predictions--Don
E. Questions
Clyde,
The results you posted beg the
question why did the "test analysis" run, not pick any of the
dates I gave, all of which were reasonably close to a .382 retracement fom
the primary trend down (March 2000 high to the September low)? It
would appear what your technique is analysing is not what is being used in
trading, yet conclusions are being drawn? How can one be so sure of
the facts when this simple test did not pick out 4 fairly clear
hits 1/7/02 (or 1/7/02, 3/8/02 or 3/11/02, 3/11/02. and 3/19/02 off the
primary top. It would appear the analysis technique is not able to
pick off a retracement of a prior multi-leg move or am I miss interpreting
what you posted. The fact remains a .382 level turned back prices in
this isolated case and the analysis failed to pick up the
points?
don ewers
----- Original Message -----
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
Clyde
Lee
To: <A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Sunday, April 14, 2002 9:21
PM
Subject: [RT] Fibo predictions--Don
E. Questions
Before I answer Don's questions I want to
make it clear that I think it is time
to end this discussion.
It is clear that those of you who wish to believe
that FIB lines drawn on a
chart have more validity to indicate turning points
than do randomly
drawn lines will continue to believe such in the
face of overwhelming
scientific evidence to the contrary.
Those of you who accept the scientific method should
now recognize
that a thorough study has been made and presented
and clearly shows
that RANDOM lines are just as valid for picking
turning points as FIB
lines.
I believe that any more on this would be beating a
dead horse.
Clyde
Don asked:
Could you run a simple test from 3/24/00
(daily) to today and tell us whether the
following <FONT face=Arial
size=2>dates came out at or near .382 retracement?
Answer:----NONE ! ! !
I ran the analysis using 3, 5, and 7 bar detection
concepts.
You will note that, as expected, the smaller the
interval used in the
detection the greater number of pivots are
detected.
I have shown the dates you listed followed by the
dates closest on
which we found picks by this method.
<FONT
face=Arial>
7 Bar Picks 5 Bar Picks 3 Bar
Picks1/4/02 01/02/2002
=0.5670
0.5670
1.14971/7/02 01/07/2002
=1.4340
1.4340
1.43403/8/02
3/11/02 03/11/2002
=1.9593
1.9593
1.95933/18/02
3/19/02 03/19/2002
=1.0413
1.0413
1.0413
7 Bar Picks01/02/2002 6 2
1114.53 1164.64 1136.23 0.567001/07/2002
2 9 1164.64 1136.23 1176.97
1.434001/23/2002 9 1 1136.23 1176.97
1117.43 1.461501/24/2002 1 6 1176.97
1117.43 1139.50 0.370702/06/2002 6 0
1117.43 1139.50 1077.78 2.796602/14/2002
0 6 1139.50 1077.78 1124.72
0.760502/20/2002 6 0 1077.78 1124.72
1074.36 1.072903/11/2002 0 7 1124.72
1074.36 1173.03 1.959303/13/2002 7 4
1074.36 1173.03 1151.01 0.223203/19/2002
4 9 1173.03 1151.01 1173.94
1.041304/11/2002 9 1 1151.01 1173.94
1102.42 3.1191
5 Bar Picks01/02/2002 6 2 1114.53
1164.64 1136.23 0.567001/07/2002 2 9
1164.64 1136.23 1176.97 1.434001/23/2002
9 1 1136.23 1176.97 1117.43
1.461501/24/2002 1 6 1176.97 1117.43
1139.50 0.370701/30/2002 6 0 1117.43
1139.50 1081.66 2.620801/31/2002 0 6
1139.50 1081.66 1130.21 0.839402/06/2002
6 0 1081.66 1130.21 1077.78
1.079902/14/2002 0 6 1130.21 1077.78
1124.72 0.895302/20/2002 6 0 1077.78
1124.72 1074.36 1.072903/11/2002 0 7
1124.72 1074.36 1173.03 1.959303/13/2002
7 4 1074.36 1173.03 1151.01
0.223203/19/2002 4 9 1173.03 1151.01
1173.94 1.041303/26/2002 9 1 1151.01
1173.94 1131.61 1.846103/28/2002 1 6
1173.94 1131.61 1154.45 0.539604/11/2002
6 0 1131.61 1154.45 1102.42 2.2780
3 Bar Picks01/02/2002 9 1 1139.93
1164.64 1136.23 1.149701/07/2002 1 7
1164.64 1136.23 1176.97 1.434001/23/2002
7 1 1136.23 1176.97 1117.43
1.461501/24/2002 1 6 1176.97 1117.43
1139.50 0.370701/30/2002 6 0 1117.43
1139.50 1081.66 2.620801/31/2002 0 6
1139.50 1081.66 1130.21 0.839402/06/2002
6 0 1081.66 1130.21 1077.78
1.079902/14/2002 0 6 1130.21 1077.78
1124.72 0.895302/20/2002 6 0 1077.78
1124.72 1074.36 1.072903/11/2002 0 7
1124.72 1074.36 1173.03 1.959303/13/2002
7 4 1074.36 1173.03 1151.01
0.223203/19/2002 4 9 1173.03 1151.01
1173.94 1.041303/26/2002 9 1 1151.01
1173.94 1131.61 1.846103/28/2002 1 6
1173.94 1131.61 1154.45 0.539604/08/2002
6 0 1131.61 1154.45 1111.79
1.867804/10/2002 0 6 1154.45 1111.79
1131.76 0.4681
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
-Clyde Lee
Chairman/CEO (Home
of SwingMachine)SYTECH
Corporation email:
clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx
7910 Westglen, Suite 105
Office: (713) 783-9540Houston, TX
77063
Fax: (713) 783-1092Details
at:
www.theswingmachine.com-
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
Don
Ewers
To: <A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Sunday, April 14, 2002 11:30
AM
Subject: Re: Re[6]: [RT] Fibo
predictions
Clyde,
Your reply below would indicate that
multiple leg moves and retracements are taken into account if I
understand it correctly?
Could you run a simple test from 3/24/00
(daily) to today and tell us whether the following dates came out at or
near .382 retracement?
1/4/02
1/7/02
3/8/02
3/11/02
3/18/02
3/19/02
I too use fibs frequently, in fact it is
hard to look a chart and not see hits that occur along with other things
I use. Makes me a bit concerned that the analysis "may" not be
doing what it is supposed to be doing. Can you do this simple test
to put my mind at ease about the above and post the output results in
text fashion (to see if these are picked up as .382 or thereabouts) and
by a similar chart to see the distribution?
Thanks in advance,
don ewers
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px"><FONT
face=Arial size=2> To
unsubscribe from this group, send an email
to:realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxYour
use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the <A
href="http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/";>Yahoo! Terms of Service.
To unsubscribe from this group, send an email
to:realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxYour
use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the <A
href="http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/";>Yahoo! Terms of Service.
To
unsubscribe from this group, send an email
to:realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxYour
use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the <A
href="http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/";>Yahoo! Terms of Service.
Yahoo! Groups Sponsor
ADVERTISEMENT<a href="http://rd.yahoo.com/M=194081.1994012.3473453.1261774/D=egroupweb/S=1705001779:HM/A=1036972/R=0/*http://www.ediets.com/start.cfm?code=3466"targe
t=_top>
To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of Service.
Attachment:
Description: "SPCday041202.gif"
|