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<BLOCKQUOTE
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
Clyde Lee
To: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Sunday, April 14, 2002 5:32
PM
Subject: [RT] Fibo predictions --
DonEwers question
Bill
You did not specify what symbol your analysis was made
from.
Sorry, did not realize that I had cut
off the prices. SPX showing your pivots and Fibonacci values,
etc.
Are these the only pivots that you see over the period
examined
or if there are more then you should specify all pivots so
that
I could attempt to adjust pivot detection parameters to fit
what
you indicate.
As you know what is a pivot for one is
a "straight" line for another. A position trader would be short from
mid-May until 9/22, so those are important pivots for that guy, as well as for
any time frame. And from there one moves down to itsy-bitsy
pivots. Take your
choice.
The original study did NOT have as many pivots and at the
places
which you indicate. The study looked for a higher
order of swings
as defined by the 8 bar detection scheme.
The attached chart shows the swings that were used over
the
period in question by the original study. You may not
agree with
the swings picked but I will assure you that the method of
picking
swings is valid and the results are what was
presented.
I have run this same study with many different swing
detection
parameters and in all cases which yielded a significant
number
of swings the distribution was very similar.
The frequency distribution that you
posted before showed peaking around Fibonacci values. I suspsect, as
mentioned before, that if you open up the pivot settings to look at larger
swings that the width of the groupings will decrease.
Clyde
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