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Before I answer Don's questions I want to make it
clear that I think it is time
to end this discussion.
It is clear that those of you who wish to believe that FIB
lines drawn on a
chart have more validity to indicate turning points than
do randomly
drawn lines will continue to believe such in the face of
overwhelming
scientific evidence to the contrary.
Those of you who accept the scientific method should now
recognize
that a thorough study has been made and presented and
clearly shows
that RANDOM lines are just as valid for picking turning
points as FIB
lines.
I believe that any more on this would be beating a dead
horse.
Clyde
Don asked:
Could you run a simple test from 3/24/00 (daily) to
today and tell us whether the
following dates came
out at or near .382 retracement?
Answer:----NONE ! ! !
I ran the analysis using 3, 5, and 7 bar detection
concepts.
You will note that, as expected, the smaller the interval
used in the
detection the greater number of pivots are
detected.
I have shown the dates you listed followed by the dates
closest on
which we found picks by this method.
<FONT
face=Arial>
7 Bar Picks 5 Bar Picks 3 Bar
Picks1/4/02 01/02/2002
=0.5670
0.5670
1.14971/7/02 01/07/2002
=1.4340
1.4340
1.43403/8/02
3/11/02 03/11/2002
=1.9593
1.9593
1.95933/18/02
3/19/02 03/19/2002
=1.0413
1.0413
1.0413
7 Bar Picks01/02/2002 6 2
1114.53 1164.64 1136.23 0.567001/07/2002 2
9 1164.64 1136.23 1176.97 1.434001/23/2002
9 1 1136.23 1176.97 1117.43
1.461501/24/2002 1 6 1176.97 1117.43
1139.50 0.370702/06/2002 6 0 1117.43
1139.50 1077.78 2.796602/14/2002 0 6
1139.50 1077.78 1124.72 0.760502/20/2002 6
0 1077.78 1124.72 1074.36 1.072903/11/2002
0 7 1124.72 1074.36 1173.03
1.959303/13/2002 7 4 1074.36 1173.03
1151.01 0.223203/19/2002 4 9 1173.03
1151.01 1173.94 1.041304/11/2002 9 1
1151.01 1173.94 1102.42 3.1191
5 Bar Picks01/02/2002 6 2 1114.53
1164.64 1136.23 0.567001/07/2002 2 9
1164.64 1136.23 1176.97 1.434001/23/2002 9
1 1136.23 1176.97 1117.43 1.461501/24/2002
1 6 1176.97 1117.43 1139.50
0.370701/30/2002 6 0 1117.43 1139.50
1081.66 2.620801/31/2002 0 6 1139.50
1081.66 1130.21 0.839402/06/2002 6 0
1081.66 1130.21 1077.78 1.079902/14/2002 0
6 1130.21 1077.78 1124.72 0.895302/20/2002
6 0 1077.78 1124.72 1074.36
1.072903/11/2002 0 7 1124.72 1074.36
1173.03 1.959303/13/2002 7 4 1074.36
1173.03 1151.01 0.223203/19/2002 4 9
1173.03 1151.01 1173.94 1.041303/26/2002 9
1 1151.01 1173.94 1131.61 1.846103/28/2002
1 6 1173.94 1131.61 1154.45
0.539604/11/2002 6 0 1131.61 1154.45
1102.42 2.2780
3 Bar Picks01/02/2002 9 1 1139.93
1164.64 1136.23 1.149701/07/2002 1 7
1164.64 1136.23 1176.97 1.434001/23/2002 7
1 1136.23 1176.97 1117.43 1.461501/24/2002
1 6 1176.97 1117.43 1139.50
0.370701/30/2002 6 0 1117.43 1139.50
1081.66 2.620801/31/2002 0 6 1139.50
1081.66 1130.21 0.839402/06/2002 6 0
1081.66 1130.21 1077.78 1.079902/14/2002 0
6 1130.21 1077.78 1124.72 0.895302/20/2002
6 0 1077.78 1124.72 1074.36
1.072903/11/2002 0 7 1124.72 1074.36
1173.03 1.959303/13/2002 7 4 1074.36
1173.03 1151.01 0.223203/19/2002 4 9
1173.03 1151.01 1173.94 1.041303/26/2002 9
1 1151.01 1173.94 1131.61 1.846103/28/2002
1 6 1173.94 1131.61 1154.45
0.539604/08/2002 6 0 1131.61 1154.45
1111.79 1.867804/10/2002 0 6 1154.45
1111.79 1131.76 0.4681
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -Clyde
Lee
Chairman/CEO (Home of
SwingMachine)SYTECH
Corporation email: <A
href="mailto:clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx";>clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx 7910
Westglen, Suite 105
Office: (713) 783-9540Houston, TX
77063
Fax: (713) 783-1092Details
at:
www.theswingmachine.com- - - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
Don
Ewers
To: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Sunday, April 14, 2002 11:30
AM
Subject: Re: Re[6]: [RT] Fibo
predictions
Clyde,
Your reply below would indicate that multiple leg
moves and retracements are taken into account if I understand it
correctly?
Could you run a simple test from 3/24/00 (daily)
to today and tell us whether the following dates came out at or near .382
retracement?
1/4/02
1/7/02
3/8/02
3/11/02
3/18/02
3/19/02
I too use fibs frequently, in fact it is hard to
look a chart and not see hits that occur along with other things I use.
Makes me a bit concerned that the analysis "may" not be doing what it is
supposed to be doing. Can you do this simple test to put my mind at ease
about the above and post the output results in text fashion (to see if these
are picked up as .382 or thereabouts) and by a similar chart to see the
distribution?
Thanks in advance,
don ewers
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