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Bill
You did not specify what symbol your analysis was
made from.
Are these the only pivots that you see over the
period examined
or if there are more then you should specify all
pivots so that
I could attempt to adjust pivot detection
parameters to fit what
you indicate.
The original study did NOT have as many pivots and
at the places
which you indicate. The study looked for a
higher order of swings
as defined by the 8 bar detection
scheme.
The attached chart shows the swings that were used
over the
period in question by the original study. You
may not agree with
the swings picked but I will assure you that the
method of picking
swings is valid and the results are what was
presented.
I have run this same study with many different
swing detection
parameters and in all cases which yielded a
significant number
of swings the distribution was very
similar.
Clyde
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -Clyde
Lee
Chairman/CEO (Home of
SwingMachine)SYTECH
Corporation email: <A
href="mailto:clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx";>clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx 7910
Westglen, Suite 105
Office: (713) 783-9540Houston, TX
77063
Fax: (713) 783-1092Details
at:
www.theswingmachine.com- - - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
<BLOCKQUOTE
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----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
Don
Ewers
To: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Sunday, April 14, 2002 11:30
AM
Subject: Re: Re[6]: [RT] Fibo
predictions
Clyde,
Your reply below would indicate that multiple leg
moves and retracements are taken into account if I understand it
correctly?
Could you run a simple test from 3/24/00 (daily)
to today and tell us whether the following dates came out at or near .382
retracement?
1/4/02
1/7/02
3/8/02
3/11/02
3/18/02
3/19/02
I too use fibs frequently, in fact it is hard to
look a chart and not see hits that occur along with other things I use.
Makes me a bit concerned that the analysis "may" not be doing what it is
supposed to be doing. Can you do this simple test to put my mind at ease
about the above and post the output results in text fashion (to see if these
are picked up as .382 or thereabouts) and by a similar chart to see the
distribution?
Thanks in advance,
don ewers
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
Clyde Lee
To: <A
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Saturday, April 13, 2002 8:39
PM
Subject: Re: Re[6]: [RT] Fibo
predictions
Let us get back to the original thesis of this
discussion:
Are FIB levels any better than RANDOM
levels.
The analysis I have provided indicate that
NEITHER holds
an advantage over the other.
It is easy to pick one or two examples which
seem to indicate
that there is significance in FIB levels but if
we look at some
1500 to 2000 pivots over a period of 72 years
or so there is
clear proof that FIB levels are no more
significant than some
kind of random selection of
numbers.
This analysis has been run from very minor
swings to very
major swings and the same distribution
exists.
I know that there are people who swear by FIB
as a guide to
pivots and have used their concepts
successfully but the fact
is that there is no more significance to FIB
levels than some
random set of numbers we select.
Clyde
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -Clyde
Lee
Chairman/CEO (Home of
SwingMachine)SYTECH
Corporation email: <A
href="mailto:clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx";>clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx 7910
Westglen, Suite 105
Office: (713) 783-9540Houston, TX
77063
Fax: (713) 783-1092Details
at:
www.theswingmachine.com- -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
<A title=wd78@xxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:wd78@xxxxxxxxxxxx";>wavemechanic
To: <A
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Saturday, April 13, 2002 7:03
PM
Subject: Re: Re[6]: [RT] Fibo
predictions
Clyde:
I think you have oversimplified a fairly complex
problem. The goal is to identify the major turns within perhaps
+/- 1-2%, as in the case of similar studies (e.g., pitchforks,
So9, etc.). In order to do this, traders usually use more
than just fibo levels to make a judgement as to what the significant
level is. They look for meshing between major fibo levels and
other subjective/objective factors (e.g., EW, indicators, etc.).
Take a look at the attached. Would your analysis pick up the major
turns on this MSFT daily, rejecting the minor swings within each
leg? That is the primary goal. My guess is that you will have
to use different pivot parameters to catch major and minor
turns. I also suspect that consistent results will be very
difficult to achieve using pivots alone. I do know,
however, that more often than not the major turns are in synch
with the "standard" fib, So9, etc. levels. In
addition, there appears to be reasonable evidence that the patterns
are fractal, extending up/down in time. Of course, to see that one
has to change the "microscope's magnification" by, for example,
adjusting pivot "+/-" size, indicator settings, etc., as a one size
fits all would most probably not be suitable in the majority of
cases.
<FONT
size=2>
Bill
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----- Original Message -----
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