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A lot of the bad news will come from certain accounting changes that have been
made. Any company that made an acquisition in the past several years will
sustain a substantial one time hit for the write off of good will. An
example. Under the old rules of amortization of good will Safeway would have a
profit of 65 cents a share. Under the new rules they will show a substantial
loss from the acquisition of two super market chains. There are other
companies that will write off everything they possibly can in order to get it
out of the way for future earnings and bonuses. Two years ago I posted that I
didn't know whether the fall would be like 1987 or 1974. It is turning out to
be a combination of both. The bubble stocks went like 1987 and the rest of
the market is acting like 1974. I hope that we can miss the inflation part of
that era. Of course then today's inflation rate was what caused price freezes
then, oil prices were at the same level, but gas prices were substantially
less. Have a good weekend. Ira
Daniel Goncharoff wrote:
> Ira
>
> You say the market looks like a disaster, then point out the facts that
> suggest, well, it isn't really a disaster!
>
> None of the major indices has taken out even its February low yet, so
> you are quite right that we haven't produced a major downturn. Yet.
>
> To me, the market is sliding down a wall of optimism (or whatever the
> reverse of climbing a wall of worry is). Stocks with good news go up,
> but stocks with bad news go down harder. The earning cycle of next week
> will be decisive, in my view, in setting the emotional environment for
> the next few months. Quick attention to outperformers will slowly lose
> out to the realization that business overall just isn't that good, and
> isn't going to get better soon.
>
> I also see this jiving with Ben's bounce next week, followed by further
> declines as the truth sets in.
>
> JMHO
> DanG
>
> Ira Tunik wrote:
> >
> > In a market that took no prisoners today there was an interesting event
> > that occurred. Out of the top volume leaders on the Nasdaq and the NYSE
> > here were the only up stocks. CPQ, AAPL, BRCD, BRCM, FLEX, MO, WM.
> > Basically one food stock, one bank and the rest high tech. Could the
> > bottom be in for the Hi-tech stocks. Where could the funds be running
> > to for safety now and what will the redemptions force them to do? In a
> > market that looks like a disaster, the Dow is still over 10,000, have we
> > seen the bottom or just the start of a big slide. Until 9500 is taken
> > out we are still in an uptrend, so there is more then 500 points that
> > can come out of this market and the direction will still be the same.
> > That means that there is still plenty to be made in either direction.
> > Good trading, Ira.
> >
> >
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> >
> >
> >
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>
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>
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