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Not sure about the "sliding down a wall of optimism" but the sentiment
figures are 25% bulls. The wall of worry seems to be well in place. Only
an idiot expects earnings about to come out very good and as expectations
continue to be lowered, firms will finally be able to meet them. My
concern is becoming the seasonality affect. We are getting into warm
months and summer has not been a good time for equities in recent years.
Bob (Fundamentalist)
At 11:25 AM 4/12/2002 -0400, you wrote:
>Ira
>
>You say the market looks like a disaster, then point out the facts that
>suggest, well, it isn't really a disaster!
>
>None of the major indices has taken out even its February low yet, so
>you are quite right that we haven't produced a major downturn. Yet.
>
>To me, the market is sliding down a wall of optimism (or whatever the
>reverse of climbing a wall of worry is). Stocks with good news go up,
>but stocks with bad news go down harder. The earning cycle of next week
>will be decisive, in my view, in setting the emotional environment for
>the next few months. Quick attention to outperformers will slowly lose
>out to the realization that business overall just isn't that good, and
>isn't going to get better soon.
>
>I also see this jiving with Ben's bounce next week, followed by further
>declines as the truth sets in.
>
>JMHO
>DanG
>
>Ira Tunik wrote:
> >
> > In a market that took no prisoners today there was an interesting event
> > that occurred. Out of the top volume leaders on the Nasdaq and the NYSE
> > here were the only up stocks. CPQ, AAPL, BRCD, BRCM, FLEX, MO, WM.
> > Basically one food stock, one bank and the rest high tech. Could the
> > bottom be in for the Hi-tech stocks. Where could the funds be running
> > to for safety now and what will the redemptions force them to do? In a
> > market that looks like a disaster, the Dow is still over 10,000, have we
> > seen the bottom or just the start of a big slide. Until 9500 is taken
> > out we are still in an uptrend, so there is more then 500 points that
> > can come out of this market and the direction will still be the same.
> > That means that there is still plenty to be made in either direction.
> > Good trading, Ira.
> >
> >
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> >
> >
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