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what about the ever present summer rally? isn't that seasonality?
bobskc@xxxxxxxxxxxx wrote:
> Not sure about the "sliding down a wall of optimism" but the sentiment
> figures are 25% bulls. The wall of worry seems to be well in place. Only
> an idiot expects earnings about to come out very good and as expectations
> continue to be lowered, firms will finally be able to meet them. My
> concern is becoming the seasonality affect. We are getting into warm
> months and summer has not been a good time for equities in recent years.
>
> Bob (Fundamentalist)
>
> At 11:25 AM 4/12/2002 -0400, you wrote:
> >Ira
> >
> >You say the market looks like a disaster, then point out the facts that
> >suggest, well, it isn't really a disaster!
> >
> >None of the major indices has taken out even its February low yet, so
> >you are quite right that we haven't produced a major downturn. Yet.
> >
> >To me, the market is sliding down a wall of optimism (or whatever the
> >reverse of climbing a wall of worry is). Stocks with good news go up,
> >but stocks with bad news go down harder. The earning cycle of next week
> >will be decisive, in my view, in setting the emotional environment for
> >the next few months. Quick attention to outperformers will slowly lose
> >out to the realization that business overall just isn't that good, and
> >isn't going to get better soon.
> >
> >I also see this jiving with Ben's bounce next week, followed by further
> >declines as the truth sets in.
> >
> >JMHO
> >DanG
> >
> >Ira Tunik wrote:
> > >
> > > In a market that took no prisoners today there was an interesting event
> > > that occurred. Out of the top volume leaders on the Nasdaq and the NYSE
> > > here were the only up stocks. CPQ, AAPL, BRCD, BRCM, FLEX, MO, WM.
> > > Basically one food stock, one bank and the rest high tech. Could the
> > > bottom be in for the Hi-tech stocks. Where could the funds be running
> > > to for safety now and what will the redemptions force them to do? In a
> > > market that looks like a disaster, the Dow is still over 10,000, have we
> > > seen the bottom or just the start of a big slide. Until 9500 is taken
> > > out we are still in an uptrend, so there is more then 500 points that
> > > can come out of this market and the direction will still be the same.
> > > That means that there is still plenty to be made in either direction.
> > > Good trading, Ira.
> > >
> > >
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> > >
> > >
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> >
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>
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