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I
think a discussion on fib levels would be great, but I question the value of
pursing the very academic question regarding random lines.
<FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>-----Original Message-----From: ztrader
[mailto:ztrader@xxxxxxxxx]Sent: Thursday, April 11, 2002 2:14
AMTo: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: Re[2]: [RT]
random price moves in ES?On Wednesday, April 10,
2002, 2:05:50 PM, Michael Ferguson wrote:MF> I think that I have
never seen anyone mention that the method theyMF> use to trade is based
on the theory that price movement is totallyMF> unstructured and random
with no discernable patterns.I'd also think this is very unlikely.
:-)))MF> based on the assertion that price movement is purely
random?I believe the question had to do with turning point
probabilities atFib lines vs. random lines. This is different from asking
if price is'random'.MF> And how could this be tested unless the
testing was also purelyMF> random?The test would have to
compare fib lines with 'random lines'. Onecomponent is random, the other
is not.MF> I do not personally have a dog in this fight, and I am
open to the facts.MF> What are they?I don't even have a fight,
much less a dog. :-) It's just adiscussion.The 'facts', sort
of:We have a line between two pivots. We draw Fib retrace lines from
thelast pivot, and also a set of random lines. Question: is
themathematical probability of having a price turning point greater
atthe Fib lines than it is at the random lines?No trades involved
here, just a question of figuring
theprobabilities.ztraderTo
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