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On Wednesday, April 10, 2002, 2:05:50 PM, Michael Ferguson wrote:
MF> I think that I have never seen anyone mention that the method they
MF> use to trade is based on the theory that price movement is totally
MF> unstructured and random with no discernable patterns.
I'd also think this is very unlikely. :-)))
MF> based on the assertion that price movement is purely random?
I believe the question had to do with turning point probabilities at
Fib lines vs. random lines. This is different from asking if price is
'random'.
MF> And how could this be tested unless the testing was also purely
MF> random?
The test would have to compare fib lines with 'random lines'. One
component is random, the other is not.
MF> I do not personally have a dog in this fight, and I am open to the facts.
MF> What are they?
I don't even have a fight, much less a dog. :-) It's just a
discussion.
The 'facts', sort of:
We have a line between two pivots. We draw Fib retrace lines from the
last pivot, and also a set of random lines. Question: is the
mathematical probability of having a price turning point greater at
the Fib lines than it is at the random lines?
No trades involved here, just a question of figuring the
probabilities.
ztrader
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