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Well, I'm not sure if I'm keeping up with you two.. Perhaps you're
talking about something else.. But here is my contribution..
In a strong (emphasize strong) up-move (thrust), you get shallow
retracements. So looking at a daily chart, the retracements may
look insignificant. They may be .382 fib retracements on a 30-min
chart, or .382 % charts on a 5-min chart, or 10-min chart etc.
But on the daily chart they look random...
In a sluggish up-move, the retracements may be .618 fib levels. Or
even more severe, depending..
So it's important to consider the context of the market.. For example,
there are some price patterns which I trade with a DEEP stop. I will
enter on a .382 level with my stop below a .618 level. Other traders
think I'm nuts taking such an unattractive risk-reward ratio.. But, as
Norman says, the odds are with me (I have a huge result). These
trades succeed more often than not, and if price does go against
me initially, the odds of it reaching my stop are very low. So a "bad"
trade often results in near break-even..
So under certain conditions there is a "huge result", the percentages
are attractive. But under average conditions, the results are random.
I'll be out of town for a week, so I apologize for any delay in responding.
Take care,
-Neal.
At 12:25 PM 4/10/2002 -0700, you wrote:
>On Wednesday, April 10, 2002, 10:42:45 AM, Norman Winski wrote:
>
>NW> Let's say that Fib. generates a significant result only 38% of the
>NW> time, but when that occurs it gives a huge result.
>
>Would this not generate a rather large pivot? If so, I'd expect this
>to be shown in the pivots selected.
>
>NW> So, the point is you can't just look at the batting average. One
>NW> must also consider the magnitude of the result. Right?
>
>If anything, the approach using a simple preselection of pivots would
>ignore *small* results, not large ones. For an exhaustive result,
>however, one could use ranges of pivots to cover all the
>possibilities.
>
>ztrader
>
>
>
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