|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
>
>MF> I do not personally have a dog in this fight, and I am open to the facts.
>MF> What are they?
>
>I don't even have a fight, much less a dog. :-) It's just a
>discussion.
Right on! It's an exploration of a concept. It happens that I
trade with this concept. But someone else may not like to
trade this way at all.. No problem..
>The 'facts', sort of:
>
>We have a line between two pivots. We draw Fib retrace lines from the
>last pivot, and also a set of random lines. Question: is the
>mathematical probability of having a price turning point greater at
>the Fib lines than it is at the random lines?
The answer is "it depends".
In practice, I have an expectation of price turning at a specific Fib
level (not any Fib level), if certain conditions exist. Only then do
I monitor for the market to actually meet my expectations, for
the market to support/resist at that level. At that time I have
a trade..
Could you do the same with random turning points? I seriously
doubt it would be as reliable! Why ? Because What I do works..
Have I tested this using random turning points? Nope. So I leave
it to other traders, give random turning points a try..
>No trades involved here, just a question of figuring the
>probabilities.
It would be great if Fibs worked the majority of the time using just
simple techniques. Life is more involved than that..
Consider of the common Stochastic as an example.. Would trading at
a Stochastic cross be statistically beneficial? Better than trading at
random points? Well, it depends.. Depends on the market. In a trend it
could be beneficial, but when the trend is changing or undecided, the
Stochastic would be painful.. And a lot depends on the random points,
sometimes they could be great.. Other times not. Just blindly trading
the Stochastic, Random points, or Fib retracements is not a good idea.
Use those tools correctly though, and you can have a great trading
plan.
Thanks for the discussion!
It's late already, good night..
-Neal.
------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ---------------------~-->
Get Custom Logo Design
Post you project fro FREE. Click Here
http://us.click.yahoo.com/e4_ewD/Vq2DAA/cosFAA/zMEolB/TM
---------------------------------------------------------------------~->
To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
|