|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
On Wednesday, April 10, 2002, 4:42:21 PM, Ira Tunik wrote:
IT> Nothing works perfectly all the time,
This is a mathematical issue and is subject to mathematical analysis.
Would you agree? Can't we try to establish the statistical occurence
of some event we are describing? Sort of like the odds people
calculate in some game of chance. Why can't we do the same kind of
calculations about Fibo retraces? It's just math.
IT> that is why someone invented the stop order.
Yep. This is a *different* issue. This is a *trading* technique that
gets invoked when you are on the wrong side of the *math*.
I am ***NOT*** looking at trading systems. I am trying to keep the
underlying math basis separate from the trading part. My question has
nothing to do with trading - just math. I am just asking about the
statistical occurrence of turning points at Fib levels. I am NOT
including how to trade them.
IT> If you are looking for a mathematical method that will give you a
IT> 100% probability or predictability, there isn't one.
Of course not. I'm not sure how you came to that conclusion.
IT> I have a system that gives me an 80% probability and has
IT> done so over the years.
Does this mean that 80% of your trades are profitable? If so, that is
NOT the kind of data I am discussing.
If you are saying that the underlying *mathematical* basis of your
system has an 80% probability of being correct, independently of any
*trading* techniques, then that is an entirely different matter. Do
you see the difference I am referring to? If so, which of these
different things are you referring to - trades or math?
IT> Being right all the time isn't the key to profitability.
Of course. First, we're not talking about "all the time", just "how
often". I think the stats of your underlying 'basis' do influence the
design of the system, though. Would you not agree?
IT> Someone wrote that if you took all the money and assets in world
IT> and distributed them evenly among everyone on earth that those
IT> that have all the money now would end up with all the money then.
I can believe that. :-) Still, I don't see what that has to do with my
question about a mathematical probability. It would seem that one
could work through a problem in statistics class without having to
take into account 'all the money in the world'. :-)
ztrader
To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
|