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If you read Hurst's book on cycles I believe that he gave a pretty good proof
that cycles work. I know a market maker that made several million dollars in
one year using the cycle method of trading. It doesn't suit me as a basic
system although I do use it in my system, but it worked wonders for him. I
posted a chart with Gann's measured move that gave today as an up move, you
can check that post. The low was at the end of the measured move. Nothing
works perfectly all the time, that is why someone invented the stop order. If
you are looking for a mathematical method that will give you a 100%
probability or predictability, there isn't one. I have a system that gives
me an 80% probability and has done so over the years. That doesn't mean that
I would be the most profitable, because there are traders that trade with a
30% probability and might make a lot more. Being right all the time isn't
the key to profitability. Running your trading like a business will.
Because someone has an MBA and Ph.D. from Harvard business school doesn't
mean that he will be successful in business. Because someone is in the top
10 in their graduation class from law school doesn't mean that they will even
pass the bar and because you practice a musical instrument 8 hours a day and
have the finest instructors doesn't mean that you will be a good musician.
The profitability is in the trader who does his homework, has a reasonable
system, runs his trading like a business and understands the tools that he is
using to do his business. It doesn't make any difference if it is trading,
having a chain of retail outlets or a hotdog stand in front of the local
hardware store you won't be profitable unless you understand what you are
doing. I believe that you could give 10 traders the perfect system and you
wouldn't find any two of them with the same bottom line at the end of a
month. Someone wrote that if you took all the money and assets in world and
distributed them evenly among everyone on earth that those that have all the
money now would end up with all the money then. As in everything there would
be exceptions. Ira
ztrader wrote:
> On Wednesday, April 10, 2002, 1:19:42 PM, Ira Tunik wrote:
>
> IT> ztrader seems to be playing games with the answer.
>
> I am NOT playing games, and I resent the implication! I am trying to
> get to some math-based data on the technique, that is all.
>
> IT> I haven't seen a chart that can not be structured in some form so
> IT> that there is a high degree of predictability.
>
> Could you perhaps show examples of such charts that demonstrate the
> predictability? I believe we are all interested in things that show a
> high degree of predictability.
>
> ztrader
>
>
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>
>
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