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When you say system Ira.....do you mean something ,
a set of rules, that you developed? Or do you mean something that you purchased
from a software vendor, which I doubt, although I have been using one for
stocks. My basic question is...how did you ....or anyone for that matter, learn
to develop a "system"?
Sean
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----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
Ira Tunik
To: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Wednesday, April 10, 2002 7:42
PM
Subject: Re: [RT] random price moves in
ES?
If you read Hurst's book on cycles I believe that he gave a
pretty good proofthat cycles work. I know a market maker that made
several million dollars inone year using the cycle method of
trading. It doesn't suit me as a basicsystem although I do use it in
my system, but it worked wonders for him. Iposted a chart with
Gann's measured move that gave today as an up move, youcan check that
post. The low was at the end of the measured move.
Nothingworks perfectly all the time, that is why someone invented the stop
order. Ifyou are looking for a mathematical method that will give you a
100%probability or predictability, there isn't one. I have a system
that givesme an 80% probability and has done so over the years. That
doesn't mean thatI would be the most profitable, because there are traders
that trade with a30% probability and might make a lot more. Being
right all the time isn'tthe key to profitability. Running your
trading like a business will.Because someone has an MBA and Ph.D. from
Harvard business school doesn'tmean that he will be successful in
business. Because someone is in the top10 in their graduation
class from law school doesn't mean that they will evenpass the bar and
because you practice a musical instrument 8 hours a day andhave the finest
instructors doesn't mean that you will be a good musician.The
profitability is in the trader who does his homework, has a
reasonablesystem, runs his trading like a business and understands the
tools that he isusing to do his business. It doesn't make any
difference if it is trading,having a chain of retail outlets or a hotdog
stand in front of the localhardware store you won't be profitable unless
you understand what you aredoing. I believe that you could give 10
traders the perfect system and youwouldn't find any two of them with the
same bottom line at the end of amonth. Someone wrote that if you
took all the money and assets in world anddistributed them evenly among
everyone on earth that those that have all themoney now would end up with
all the money then. As in everything there wouldbe exceptions.
Iraztrader wrote:> On Wednesday, April 10, 2002, 1:19:42
PM, Ira Tunik wrote:>> IT> ztrader seems to be playing games
with the answer.>> I am NOT playing games, and I resent the
implication! I am trying to> get to some math-based data on the
technique, that is all.>> IT> I haven't seen a chart that can
not be structured in some form so> IT> that there is a high degree
of predictability.>> Could you perhaps show examples of such
charts that demonstrate the> predictability? I believe we are all
interested in things that show a> high degree of
predictability.>> ztrader>>> To unsubscribe
from this group, send an email to:>
realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>>>> Your
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