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Tom,
The application of the science of chaos to analysis
of financial markets has shown them to be resemble chaotic systems. As such ,
they have limited memory and are subject to new influences. From a predictive
standpoint, this implies they are forecastable only over the short term since
new, unforcastable events will influence future movements.As chaotic systems,
markets should be described as non linear systems rather than the linear
approach that static cycle analysis infers.
If you want to learn more, I have some papers on my
site at PivotTradwer.com which should be of interest.
Jim White
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----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
Tom Bowen
To: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Saturday, April 06, 2002 1:18
PM
Subject: Re: Re[2]: [RT] List
description: interrogatories
Kent,
Honest questions derived from professional
curiosity and a sincere desire to improve all our trading skills, no
intent other than what is clearly stated below is implied or should be
perceived.
You said "IN REALITY, the markets are totally
chaotic".
Do you believe the markets are totally random and
contain no patterned behavior ?
I believe a detailed study of the historical
price activity of each market does reveal a definitive patterned and
predictive behavior for that specific market.
You said "You will never become a professional
trader by drawing geometric patterns on charts".
Did you believe there is no geometry involved in
market price behavior ?
I believe that a detailed study of the
geometrical behavior of historical price activity for any given market does
reveal geometric patterns that can be extremely powerful in predicting future
price activity behavior for the specific market being
studied.
I would be extremely interested in opening a
dialog with you via the list as I believe we could explore these
positions/beliefs to the benefit of ourselves and many of the
other subscribers to the list.
God Bless and best wishes in all your future
endeavors,Tom
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----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
Kent
Rollins
To: <A
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Friday, April 05, 2002 9:32
AM
Subject: Re: Re[2]: [RT] List
description: interrogatories
Good point on the methods discussed on this list.
And I think that does thenewbies on the list a disservice. As
humans, our brains want to formpatterns and see the market respond to
pleasant shapes like squares andgentle waves. IN REALITY, the
markets are totally chaotic. You will neverbecome a professional
trader by drawing geometric patterns on charts. Butnewbies don't
know this. They think that mystical methods have merit.
Thislist doesn't exist to disabuse newbies of that notion, but more and
more itexists to promote those methods. And like you said, most of
the quants aregone.List often do have agendas that are not
spelled out. And the fact that Markattacked BobsKC for being a
vendor and now BobsKC is the
activemoderator....Kent----- Original Message
-----From: "ztrader" <ztrader@xxxxxxxxx>To:
<realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>Sent: Friday, April 05, 2002 9:41
AMSubject: Re[2]: [RT] List description:
interrogatoriesKR> Not a list where anyone with an email
account tosses outKR> completely hypothetical crap about what the
market may or may notKR> do over a hypothetical timeframe. How
about you?It may have to do with how people on this list think. I
seem to detecta strong bias against quantitative methods, and an
open-arms receptionto mystical methods. There is *very* little
hard-nosed quantitativediscussion on this list, and most of the 'quants'
are gone, some bybeing banned. It seems that this attitude is desired by
the members,and is not likely to change.Lists generally have
agendas that are NOT spelled out in thedescription, and it is these
hidden agendas that seem to cause
manyproblems.To unsubscribe from
this group, send an email
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