|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
The GIGO principal rules here....
bad info in = bad results out.
Worse: limited info in = limited results out.
I believe Cassandra is showing us a clear demonstration of this.
They've got all of this computing horsepower working with LIMITED input.
It's like trying to get a thousand monkeys to write a play at the level of
Shakespeare.......
and just adding more monkeys to try to achieve "better" results.
Also, how do I tell my computer program that Alan Greenspan is speaking
tomorrow and that the market could break-out at any time during the day ?
input: GreenspanEffectOn(true);
vars: UseReversalEntry(false);
if GreenspanEffectOn then Begin
StopExitpoints = NormalPoints * 0.5;
UseReversalEntryOnStopout=true;
End;
If I were Dexter:
"Computer: be careful tomorrow, this guy is talking in the morning and he
alone can move the market so keep your stops tight and get ready to reverse
if stopped-out in the wrong direction"
Yeah, right.
> -----Original Message-----
> From: topos8 [mailto:topos8@xxxxxxx]
> Sent: Tuesday, February 26, 2002 1:30 PM
> To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: [RT] What computers can't do (yet!)
>
>
> I am a big fan of computer assisted trading and I thought I might
> make a couple of comments on the recent thread on this subject.
>
> Computers are fast, accurate and tireless calculators. Computers are
> also simpletons in the sense that they don't "understand" (yet)
> everyday spoken and written language.
>
> This unique combination of characteristics offers an opportunity to
> anyone who wants to test and improve his or her trading methods. To
> explain to a computer how you trade can be a very difficult task. To
> do this you have to write "software" which tells the simpleton
> computer how to translate the market prices (or whatever it is you
> look at) in some data base into actual trades.
>
> If you (or a programmer you hire) can't do this then the odds are
> high that "intuition" plays a major role in your trading methodology.
> In my own case I find my intuition about markets misleading so often
> that I refuse to trade on this basis and instead rely only on my
> software based trading plan.
>
> On the other hand I have to say that my trading methods are based on
> my ideas, not the computer's. Computer software is not yet
> very "creative" in the sense that we humans understand this term.
>
> True, the technology of "software creativity" is advancing rapidly
> (viz. all the work being done with neural nets etc.). But I would
> argue that all this "creativity" so far consists of elaborate
> searches through terrain which has already been mapped out by the
> software developer.
>
> Of course, the developer doesn't know what answer (a trading plan)
> the software will come up with once it is let loose on the data. In
> this sense the computer appears to be creative when it identifies a
> potential profitable trading methodology, especially one which the
> developer didn't anticipate. But what's really happening here is
> that the computer is taking advantage of its unique ability to do
> fast and accurate calculations. It is just exploring the universe of
> possible statistical models which the human software developer
> specified for it (sometimes only implicitly) in advance.
>
> What the computer can't do is come up with a model that the developer
> hasn't imagined yet. In other words it doesn't come up with "new
> ideas" in the sense we typically use this phrase.
>
> It is my own view that we may not be far away from a world in which
> competing trading software is responsible for a good part of trading
> activity. But markets are very competitive, so the winning programs
> will always be those whose human creators provided them with
> a "better idea" to chew on. Now the day may come when software comes
> up with new ideas in the sense we use the term, but I think we are
> still far away from that now.
>
> Carl
>
>
>
>
> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>
>
>
> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
>
>
------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ---------------------~-->
Buy Stock for $4.
No Minimums.
FREE Money 2002.
http://us.click.yahoo.com/BgmYkB/VovDAA/ySSFAA/zMEolB/TM
---------------------------------------------------------------------~->
To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
|