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Very well stated.
Can we get back to the business of trading and
helping one another now ??????????????
PLEASE !!!!!!!!!!!!!
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----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
Bob Heisler
To: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Monday, February 25, 2002 8:22
PM
Subject: Re: [RT] Vegas Anyone? - The
Nasdaq Sniffer
I don't think we need clarity. In fact this thread is
painfully clear. ButI do think the folks pushing this argument need
a healthy dose ofself-confidence. Computers are excellent tools if
used properly by humansbut they will never replace us. Nor will they
ever transform anyone into atrader - only you can do
that.Bob----- Original Message -----From: "tim long"
<tlong22@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>To:
<realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>Sent: Monday, February 25, 2002 9:25
PMSubject: Re: [RT] Vegas Anyone? - The Nasdaq Sniffer> I'm
reading this thread and it seems to me that some clarity is in order,>
IMHO.> What do we know is predictable? Certainly the tides,
but what perfection> level is needed?>> Humans
trading -vs- computers (programmed by humans) trading - what
arethe> main issues?> Can we program our thinking?
Left brain logic?, yes, of course.> Blackjack is a good example of left
brain usage. Try to be right brainedand> you are a loser.>
No human can outperform a computer at this. The latest Chess computer
can> beat any human. Chess is about strategy and tactics, in human
theory, but,> to a computer that has every game ever played (and is
well programmed),it's> really about the superior capacities,
data and speed of the computer.>> Trading? What does
trading consist of? Are the decisions madeleft-brained,>
right-brained or just purely emotional? I don't imagine anyone
herewould> challenge the idea of having a trading plan, which is
all left-brainstuff.> If one programs all the components of a
professionally done writtentrading> plan, it's likely
unbeatable.>> Now back to the original issue,
predictability. If one tries to forecast> the future, it calls
for inductive reason, based on something like cycles.> It's projected
outward in time. This I'd call a strategy.> I admit ignorance
with neural nets. It seems like step-wise regression> testing or
something like that. But deductive reasoning, like after achess>
move, would be used (I guess) by the neural net, kinda like the weather.
I> wouldn't call it a forecast, maybe a pattern recognition
probability, ora> validation or invalidation of the original
forecast (strategy).>> OK. A lot of words to say "what is the
probability that this prediction is> accurate?". If a program can
make a prediction and record it on the> database, it's easy enough to
go back and compare the actual result to it.> Computer test results,
(Odds, Probabilities) would be the "edge" over> humans.>>
Personally, I don't think humans are made for trading, any more than>
Blackjack, i.e, if the goal is to make money.>> IMHO, the
components of human behavior are absolutely predictable, and,>
programmable, but not by Friday.> I don't know where we are on "Visual"
technology, but, it seems inevitable> that the computer will surpass
us. But, for now, experience can be "seen"by> the pros and I guess
it'll still be king, for a little while anyway.>> Sorry if I
overdid this,>> Tim>> ----- Original Message
-----> From: BL <blee7@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>> To:
<realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>> Sent: Monday, February 25, 2002
8:49 PM> Subject: Re: [RT] Vegas Anyone? - The Nasdaq
Sniffer>>> > > Neural nets are a
joke compared to what I am talking about. NN keep> > >
learning and re adapting to new data in old data series by
refitting.> > > I am talking about something that
knows more than any mass of humans> > > could ever know let alone
communicate to each other in a timely enough> > > fashion to
utilize that knowledge.> >> >> > Okay,>
>> > I'll put my old-timey, Neural Net clunker joke model up
against any> > fire-breathing, sounding-hearing,
master-of-the-universe computer model,> and> > this ain't
even close to being one of my best. It's 100% marketexposed,>
> trades on the open only using EOD data for signal generation, trades
one> > contract and changes position, on average, once every 2
days. Any> > supercomputer takers or is it all talk? Oh
yeah, I guess I need to be> > up-front and let you know one of the
model's inputs can actually smellthe> > market, thus the name -
the Nasdaq Sniffer..... Supercomputer, Kick my> > net's
ass. I'll even give you a handicap and let you trade intra-day
if> you> > like. Just allow me time to change the net's
batteries when needed.> >> >> > To unsubscribe
from this group, send an email to:> >
realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> >> >>
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