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Bob,
Thank you for your public reaction - I hear myself in you.
On Date: Sat, 19 Jan 2002 21:09:36 -0800, you wrote to Realtraders:
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"From: BobsKC <bobskc@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: Maybe
Do people actually buy this geru b.s. and pay you for it? Please.. if you
have something to contribute that has NOTHING to do with the mentality of
trading, do so. If not, you have burned out that topic several times
over.
Thank you,
Bob"
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Bob,
The word you are looking for maybe 'guru'. I am
no guru, and my services are all free. Perhaps,
that is all they are worth.
Maybe you are projecting onto me where you would be coming from, if you
were saying what you perceive I am saying, in the manner you perceive me
to be speaking.
Maybe your perceptions are wrong, and maybe you are telling us all
something about yourself you would rather be kept hidden if you were more
self-aware?
When you feel you are incredibly fortunate, and perhaps have
something of value to offer other traders from your experience of both
failure and success, you may also wish to give back some of your
experience to the trading community.
If you cannot understand this, perhaps you will suspend judgement until
you can. But I think you can understand at a deep
level.
Most everything is to do with the psychology of trading.
For example, the need to discuss individual targets, projections,
forecasts, entry/exit points for individual trades etcetera is often (but
not always) based on a need for reassurance of the wisdom of actions
taken or planned, or perhaps based on a need for psychological stroking
for a (self-perceived) rare success story. Both suggest
a lack of confidence and thus a lack of long term success.
There are exceptions, but these are the most common deep motivations for
discussing such trivia.
For if a trader is more self-aware, then he/she knows that their
forecasts etcetera are just tips in the eyes of other traders - and
having got past the stage of taking tips themselves, realise the damage
tips do to other traders less well developed on the path to trading
success.
So I am glad to have been of (irritating) service to
you. I am truly sorry that the opportunity I may have
given you has not been of value to you to date, for I can only be as
successful for you as you permit me to be. No strategy
works for everyone. Not everyone is ready, and those
that are ready need a range of different prompts, for everyone is both
different and the same.
Emotions are your feedback device - only invoked when you
recognise you are off a path that could lead to your
objectives or aims - this is why the word "upset" is used
for people in an highly emotional state.
So what are your emotions feeding back to you?
If emotions are a feedback device they are useful only if you use them
for their intended design purpose, and not as a weapon to unsuccessfully
project your problems onto others and so as a means of avoiding personal
acceptance of the need for change.
So let us look more into alternative approaches based more closely on
some sort of shareable objective reality, and not clouded by strong
emotions ...
Imagine you took a trade in IBM. You did
well to buy it at 50 and sell it at 100 - a 50 point
profit. Congratulations.
Imagine simultaneously with your purchase and sale, a friend made 5,000
points out of IBM - in exactly the same period your directional trade was
held.
Impossible you cry.
90 years of DOW data is available free from the internet.
Just search on Google for 'free dow data'.
Over the period of the data, the total move from Jan 2, 1901 to April 24,
1998 was 51.6 to 9064.2 - a move of 9,000 points approximately.
In the same period the total path of the market, close to close, was
about 127,000 points. If the
intra-day movements were available, the path of the market would probably
be nearer 1,000,000 points.
So where is the money? 9,000 points in
directional move or the approximately 1,000,000 points in market path.
They say in trading you should go for the money!
Volatility provides, on average, about 100 times the opportunity for
profits compared to a trend - and getting the trend profits does depends
on correctly predicting the direction.
Now you know where over 100% per annum profits can arise regularly and
potentially stress free. As you know, much trader
stress relates to ego - self value linked to prediction success or
failure. So using no predictions removes a major source
of stress for those of us with an ego like me.
Now you know why some successful traders put up with a life in a trading
pit even if they leave for home shortly after the open.
But if your emotions are clouding your perceptions, then yet another
opportunity goes by unexploited.
That's life for those of us lucky to have emotions, but unfortunate
enough not to know how to use them to our advantage.
This last statement is not entirely correct as those that wallow in their
emotions are using their emotions to one kind advantage - wallowing and
being able to blame those who are perceived as invoking the
emotions. Sad really, as it is such a waste of a
good life experience and potentially useful emotional
feedback.
Still, there will always be another opportunity - perhaps this one has
your name on it. I do hope so.
Unconditional regards, Ric.
www.traderscalm.com
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