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Not sure about that Steve. In my recollection (and old testing), in the
1980's if you bought every time the futures closed at a discount to cash, it
was hard not to make $.
----- Original Message -----
From: Steve McGuire <netvest77@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Friday, December 14, 2001 4:03 PM
Subject: Re: [RT] Small Premium on the S&P?
> OK, it's not just interest rates. When the S&P futures started trading
back
> in 1982, interest rates were a lot higher than they are now and the S&P
> futures traded at a DISCOUNT to the cash. It was a bear market and every
> time the futures got back to even with cash it was a good short. On the
> next major leg down in this bear market, I would expect to see the same
> thing again.
>
> The problem I see with most traders & investors today is that they have
> never seen a bear (some think he is extinct) and they don't study market
> history. The final low for this bear is still several years out.
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Roger L. Shepherd" <mailrs@xxxxxxxxxx>
> To: "Realtraders" <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Friday, December 14, 2001 1:35 PM
> Subject: [RT] Small Premium on the S&P?
>
>
> > Hello Realtraders,
> >
> > Am I missing something or are the market expectations really this
> > weak? Usually when the quarterly S&P rolls over to the new
> > contract, the premium jumps from 1 point to around 10 points or so.
> >
> > This rollover it hardly changed at all. The Dec. Mar. and Spot are
> > staying within 1 to 2 points of each other.
> >
> > I realize that with interest rates low and dividends shrinking the
> > number should be smaller than it has been in the recent past but
> > that wouldn't make this much difference.
> >
> > Anybody have an answer?
> >
> > --
> > Best regards,
> > Roger mailto:mailrs@xxxxxxxxxx
> >
> >
> >
> > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
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> >
> >
> >
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> >
> >
> >
> >
>
>
>
> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
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>
>
>
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