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Those who do not remember the past are condmened to repeat it or
something like that...
I agree that conditions now are somewhat different than in the past so
its goofy
to say "well the market has bottomed out so we'll see a recovery six
months from
now". Does no one remember the saying "past performance is no guarentee of
future results?"
-- John
Steve McGuire wrote:
>OK, it's not just interest rates. When the S&P futures started trading back
>in 1982, interest rates were a lot higher than they are now and the S&P
>futures traded at a DISCOUNT to the cash. It was a bear market and every
>time the futures got back to even with cash it was a good short. On the
>next major leg down in this bear market, I would expect to see the same
>thing again.
>
>The problem I see with most traders & investors today is that they have
>never seen a bear (some think he is extinct) and they don't study market
>history. The final low for this bear is still several years out.
>
>
>----- Original Message -----
>From: "Roger L. Shepherd" <mailrs@xxxxxxxxxx>
>To: "Realtraders" <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>Sent: Friday, December 14, 2001 1:35 PM
>Subject: [RT] Small Premium on the S&P?
>
>
>>Hello Realtraders,
>>
>> Am I missing something or are the market expectations really this
>> weak? Usually when the quarterly S&P rolls over to the new
>> contract, the premium jumps from 1 point to around 10 points or so.
>>
>> This rollover it hardly changed at all. The Dec. Mar. and Spot are
>> staying within 1 to 2 points of each other.
>>
>> I realize that with interest rates low and dividends shrinking the
>> number should be smaller than it has been in the recent past but
>> that wouldn't make this much difference.
>>
>> Anybody have an answer?
>>
>>--
>>Best regards,
>> Roger mailto:mailrs@xxxxxxxxxx
>>
>>
>>
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>>
>>
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>>
>>
>>
>
>
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