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OK, it's not just interest rates. When the S&P futures started trading back
in 1982, interest rates were a lot higher than they are now and the S&P
futures traded at a DISCOUNT to the cash. It was a bear market and every
time the futures got back to even with cash it was a good short. On the
next major leg down in this bear market, I would expect to see the same
thing again.
The problem I see with most traders & investors today is that they have
never seen a bear (some think he is extinct) and they don't study market
history. The final low for this bear is still several years out.
----- Original Message -----
From: "Roger L. Shepherd" <mailrs@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: "Realtraders" <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Friday, December 14, 2001 1:35 PM
Subject: [RT] Small Premium on the S&P?
> Hello Realtraders,
>
> Am I missing something or are the market expectations really this
> weak? Usually when the quarterly S&P rolls over to the new
> contract, the premium jumps from 1 point to around 10 points or so.
>
> This rollover it hardly changed at all. The Dec. Mar. and Spot are
> staying within 1 to 2 points of each other.
>
> I realize that with interest rates low and dividends shrinking the
> number should be smaller than it has been in the recent past but
> that wouldn't make this much difference.
>
> Anybody have an answer?
>
> --
> Best regards,
> Roger mailto:mailrs@xxxxxxxxxx
>
>
>
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>
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>
>
>
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