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Lee,
There are multiple peaks near the high on the seasonal (green) line. One
earlier lower high (up near the top) is on the week of 12-7-01, then the two
later higher tops on the weeks of 1-11-02 and 2-8-02.
The valley thereafter is on the week of 4-5-02.
The seasonal was originally overlayed over the price bars on the monthly
chart I sent earlier. As such the seasonal does NOT relate to a 116 price
high and a 107 valley low, I want to make that clear?
As you see in the first gif attached to this post, I can shift it above the
price bars also (one should not conclude bonds are going to 123 and a valley
of 115 accordingly). Also keep in mind, although this seasonal has had a
very good track record going back to early 2000, it does not mean the
current correlation will continue. For instance in 1999 it was completely
wrong (see second gif). My reason for posting it, was to purely say it has
been tracking well as far as pattern SO FAR.
Seasonals are a confirming indicator and it has been said you can almost
make them say what ever you want (the old "they must be an inverted
seasonal") so I want to caution anyone there. If I had 6 indicators that
were good, it would be the 7th. There is a seasonal trade (spread and
otherwise) that attempts to play this decline that occurs between January
and sometimes into May though that has a good record. Anyone who has the
current Moore Research recommended trades for next year on bonds could
possibly post that trade?
Good luck and good trading,
don ewers
----- Original Message -----
From: "Lee Morris" <LMorris@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Friday, November 02, 2001 2:53 PM
Subject: RE: [RT] bonds long term
> don what is the dates of the next peak and valley on the seasonal around
116
> and 107
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Don Ewers [mailto:dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]
> Sent: Friday, November 02, 2001 2:48 PM
> To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: Re: [RT] bonds long term
>
>
> Attached is the updated 60min chart (with first 5 hours today)
>
> At this point the question would be is wave 3 complete and we are moving
> down in a wave 4 or is this only minor wave 4 of wave 3, with minor wave
5
> yet to come, completeing wave 3?
>
> Both will follow a similar pattern and so far it appears a .50
retracement
> has held, but we will have to see what unfolds. The interesting thing
is
> the low PTI of 19 (in Red Box) which says for the moment that a wave 5,
if
> it materializes, will likely double top near the highs (maybe just poke
> into
> that 113-01 expansion?) or if this is still wave 3 the PTI is a
non-issue.
> Since the 5/35 oscillator at the bottom of the chart is still above zero
> we
> need a few more hours to go by for for this to work itself out.
>
> The weekly is also included (with the green seasonal). As far as it is
> concerned a wave 5 is in, it went into the MOB resistance off the prior
> wave
> 3. Prices exceeded the 1998 high so a major double top in bonds is
> possible
> or . . . we have more to go to the upside and the next MOB?
>
> That said, the 60min will provide clues as this retracement unfolds?
>
> FWIW the 60min wave count is from the starting point for minor wave 5 of
> wave 3 on the daily, chart not included here (as expected the count
there
> changed from a wave 5 to a wave 3 due to the height of the 5/35
> oscillator).
> don ewers
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "profitok" <profitok@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Thursday, November 01, 2001 9:40 PM
> Subject: Re: [RT] bonds long term
>
>
> > Is pink line above chart the seasonally?
> > regards
> > Ben
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Earl Adamy" <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>
> > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Sent: Thursday, November 01, 2001 9:49 AM
> > Subject: Re: [RT] bonds long term
> >
> >
> > > Weekly is working very nicely with the 10/70 and long term counts
...
> so
> > far
> > > anyway. Timing mark on the "big MOB in the sky" is week of 07Dec.
> > >
> > > Earl
> > >
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: "Don Ewers" <dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > To: "Real Traders" <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > Sent: Thursday, November 01, 2001 7:40 AM
> > > Subject: Re: [RT] bonds long term
> > >
> > >
> > > > With the type of power move in the bonds made on 10-31-01 I
decided
> to
> > see
> > > > if the 5/35 oscillator was possibly putting in a new high which
> would
> > > shift
> > > > the 5 wave count to a wave 3 (previously using 10/70 and long term
> EW
> > > count
> > > > due to the depth of the prior wave 4 pullback). As expected the
> count
> > has
> > > > expanded to the next "degree. Old wave 3 becomes wave 1, old wave
4
> > > becomes
> > > > wave 2, and finally old wave 5 becomes wave 3.
> > > >
> > > > Since we are in the wave 3 target range (see chart) then a pull
back
> > could
> > > > start any time in here for a wave 4, which would be subsequently
> > followed
> > > by
> > > > a wave 5.
> > > >
> > > > Bottom line if we are headed higher we may not go straight up to
> that
> > > higher
> > > > level (which would fit with the December high dates forcast by
some
> and
> > > > others out to early February)?
> > > > don ewers
> > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > From: "Don Ewers" <dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > To: "Real Traders" <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > Sent: Wednesday, October 31, 2001 2:36 PM
> > > > Subject: Re: [RT] bonds long term
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > > Bruce,
> > > > > I would be unfair to not post an example of a MOB failure (the
> "break"
> > > > side
> > > > > of the equation). So here is one.
> > > > >
> > > > > I have been posting that bonds were in a wave 5 on a 60min chart
> and
> > > > > "should" move higher (a move also supported by the daily and
> weekly
> > > > charts).
> > > > > The MOB off the 60min wave 3 is on the attached chart between
> 108-17
> > and
> > > > > 108-26. So prices should "make" the MOB, would be what one would
> be
> > > > looking
> > > > > for.
> > > > >
> > > > > Assuming you use a 60min chart to trade, you would have taken
> profits
> > at
> > > > the
> > > > > MOB. After which with the weekly showing higher MOBS, maybe buy
a
> > > retrace
> > > > > or reverse if such a sell signal appeared. The movement through
> the
> > MOB
> > > > > like this tells you something (particullarly had it been more
> > orderly).
> > > > Now
> > > > > whether you could get back on board or not is another question
> with
> > this
> > > > > kind of power move, but had it moved through and closed above,
> then
> > took
> > > > out
> > > > > the high of that bar, it is a signal to get back on board and go
> to
> a
> > > > higher
> > > > > time frame for targets (like the weekly posted earlier).
> > > > >
> > > > > I just don't want anyone thinking these things are magical.
> > > > >
> > > > > You will notice prices temporarily stalled underneath the 60min
> MOB
> > > though
> > > > > before busting through.
> > > > > don ewers
> > > > >
> > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > From: "Don Ewers" <dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > > Sent: Wednesday, October 31, 2001 11:29 AM
> > > > > Subject: Re: [RT] bonds long term
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > > Bruce,
> > > > > > MOB stands for Make Or Break and it is a tool within the AGET
> > program.
> > > > The
> > > > > > "bands" represent target areas based on prior price action
> pattern
> > and
> > > > are
> > > > > > calculated off of previous peaks. I considered them additive
to
> the
> > > > > > standard fib expansion ranges that project areas where a
> specific
> > wave
> > > > > might
> > > > > > end. In that regard they zero in on a 'tighter" possible
target
> > > range.
> > > > > Do
> > > > > > the always hold nope, are they always reached nope, can they
be
> > > exceeded
> > > > > > yes, nothing is perfect, but I have found them to be very
> helpful.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Essentially price is likely to "make" it there and if it
> "breaks"
> it
> > > on
> > > > a
> > > > > > closing basis can be a sign of an extended move above it
> > (essentially
> > > > what
> > > > > > should have been resistance was blow away). In general they
are
> > > places
> > > > to
> > > > > > consider taking "some off the wagon" so to speak if not all
and
> look
> > > for
> > > > a
> > > > > > reversal.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > The black vertical bars in them represent possible timing.
The
> > black
> > > > box
> > > > > to
> > > > > > the far left of the band will disappear when the prior peak it
> is
> > > drawn
> > > > > from
> > > > > > is exceeded and the MOB locks in place for price and time.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Probably more than you wanted to know, sorry.
> > > > > > don ewers
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > > From: <bruce.larson@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > > > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > > > Sent: Wednesday, October 31, 2001 11:10 AM
> > > > > > Subject: Re: [RT] bonds long term
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > > Sorry, what's a MOB? Only MOB I'm familiar with is the Muni
> over
> > > > > > > Bond spread.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > --- In realtraders@xxxx, "Don Ewers" <dbewers@xxxx> wrote:
> > > > > > > > Slawek,
> > > > > > > > The seasonal (dark green line) on a AGET US01Z continuous
> > weekly
> > > > > > > would
> > > > > > > > agree on a February peak (if not before). February 8,
2002
> is
> > the
> > > > > > > peak on
> > > > > > > > the seasonal for next year. Looking back on previous
years
> > shows
> > > > > > > the
> > > > > > > > pattern has followed it quite nicely?
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > That said we are into the wave 5 target range (shown as
.618
> to
> > > 1.0
> > > > > > > > expansion) with several MOB's overhead (one off the
previous
> > wave
> > > 3
> > > > > > > (@111-28
> > > > > > > > to 112-26) and the other one is off the1998 peak in bonds
> > (@115-16
> > > > > > > to
> > > > > > > > 118-03)) . Where exactly they stop price wise is still an
> > unknown
> > > > > > > but these
> > > > > > > > are some areas to watch.
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > Bruce, your 117 pegs the exact center of the 1998 MOB,
FYIW.
> > > > > > > > don ewers
> > > > > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > > > > From: <SLAWEKP@xxxx>
> > > > > > > > To: <REALTRADERS@xxxx>
> > > > > > > > Sent: Wednesday, October 31, 2001 9:35 AM
> > > > > > > > Subject: [RT] bonds long term
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > From weekly inverted 30 yr. Yield
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > >
> --------------------------------------------------------------------
> > > > > > > --------
> > > > > > > > ----
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
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