|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
don
what is the dates of the next peak and valley on the seasonal around 116 and
107
<FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>-----Original Message-----From: Don Ewers
[mailto:dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]Sent: Friday, November 02, 2001 2:48
PMTo: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: Re: [RT] bonds
long termAttached is the updated 60min chart (with
first 5 hours today)At this point the question would be is wave 3
complete and we are movingdown in a wave 4 or is this only minor wave 4 of
wave 3, with minor wave 5yet to come, completeing wave 3?Both will
follow a similar pattern and so far it appears a .50 retracementhas held,
but we will have to see what unfolds. The interesting thing isthe
low PTI of 19 (in Red Box) which says for the moment that a wave 5, ifit
materializes, will likely double top near the highs (maybe just poke
intothat 113-01 expansion?) or if this is still wave 3 the PTI is a
non-issue.Since the 5/35 oscillator at the bottom of the chart is still
above zero weneed a few more hours to go by for for this to work itself
out.The weekly is also included (with the green seasonal). As
far as it isconcerned a wave 5 is in, it went into the MOB resistance off
the prior wave3. Prices exceeded the 1998 high so a major double top
in bonds is possibleor . . . we have more to go to the upside and the next
MOB?That said, the 60min will provide clues as this retracement
unfolds?FWIW the 60min wave count is from the starting point for minor
wave 5 ofwave 3 on the daily, chart not included here (as expected the
count therechanged from a wave 5 to a wave 3 due to the height of the 5/35
oscillator).don ewers----- Original Message -----From:
"profitok" <profitok@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>To:
<realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>Sent: Thursday, November 01, 2001 9:40
PMSubject: Re: [RT] bonds long term> Is pink line above
chart the seasonally?> regards> Ben> ----- Original
Message -----> From: "Earl Adamy" <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>> To:
<realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>> Sent: Thursday, November 01, 2001
9:49 AM> Subject: Re: [RT] bonds long term>>> >
Weekly is working very nicely with the 10/70 and long term counts ...
so> far> > anyway. Timing mark on the "big MOB in the sky" is
week of 07Dec.> >> > Earl> >> > -----
Original Message -----> > From: "Don Ewers"
<dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>> > To: "Real Traders"
<realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>> > Sent: Thursday, November 01,
2001 7:40 AM> > Subject: Re: [RT] bonds long term>
>> >> > > With the type of power move in the bonds
made on 10-31-01 I decided to> see> > > if the 5/35
oscillator was possibly putting in a new high which would> >
shift> > > the 5 wave count to a wave 3 (previously using 10/70
and long term EW> > count> > > due to the depth of the
prior wave 4 pullback). As expected the count> has> >
> expanded to the next "degree. Old wave 3 becomes wave 1, old wave
4> > becomes> > > wave 2, and finally old wave 5
becomes wave 3.> > >> > > Since we are in the wave 3
target range (see chart) then a pull back> could> > >
start any time in here for a wave 4, which would be subsequently>
followed> > by> > > a wave 5.> > >>
> > Bottom line if we are headed higher we may not go straight up to
that> > higher> > > level (which would fit with the
December high dates forcast by someand> > > others out to
early February)?> > > don ewers> > > ----- Original
Message -----> > > From: "Don Ewers"
<dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>> > > To: "Real Traders"
<realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>> > > Sent: Wednesday, October
31, 2001 2:36 PM> > > Subject: Re: [RT] bonds long term>
> >> > >> > > > Bruce,> > >
> I would be unfair to not post an example of a MOB failure
(the"break"> > > side> > > > of the
equation). So here is one.> > > >> > > > I
have been posting that bonds were in a wave 5 on a 60min chart and>
> > > "should" move higher (a move also supported by the daily and
weekly> > > charts).> > > > The MOB off the 60min
wave 3 is on the attached chart between 108-17> and> > >
> 108-26. So prices should "make" the MOB, would be what one would
be> > > looking> > > > for.> > >
>> > > > Assuming you use a 60min chart to trade, you would
have takenprofits> at> > > the> > > >
MOB. After which with the weekly showing higher MOBS, maybe buy
a> > retrace> > > > or reverse if such a sell signal
appeared. The movement through the> MOB> > > >
like this tells you something (particullarly had it been more>
orderly).> > > Now> > > > whether you could get
back on board or not is another question with> this> > >
> kind of power move, but had it moved through and closed above,
then> took> > > out> > > > the high of
that bar, it is a signal to get back on board and go toa> > >
higher> > > > time frame for targets (like the weekly posted
earlier).> > > >> > > > I just don't want
anyone thinking these things are magical.> > > >> >
> > You will notice prices temporarily stalled underneath the 60min
MOB> > though> > > > before busting through.>
> > > don ewers> > > >> > > > -----
Original Message -----> > > > From: "Don Ewers"
<dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>> > > > To:
<realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>> > > > Sent: Wednesday,
October 31, 2001 11:29 AM> > > > Subject: Re: [RT] bonds long
term> > > >> > > >> > > > >
Bruce,> > > > > MOB stands for Make Or Break and it is a
tool within the AGET> program.> > > The> > >
> > "bands" represent target areas based on prior price action
pattern> and> > > are> > > > >
calculated off of previous peaks. I considered them additive
tothe> > > > > standard fib expansion ranges that
project areas where a specific> wave> > > >
might> > > > > end. In that regard they zero in on a
'tighter" possible target> > range.> > > >
Do> > > > > the always hold nope, are they always reached
nope, can they be> > exceeded> > > > > yes,
nothing is perfect, but I have found them to be very helpful.> >
> > >> > > > > Essentially price is likely to
"make" it there and if it "breaks"it> > on> > >
a> > > > > closing basis can be a sign of an extended move
above it> (essentially> > > what> > > >
> should have been resistance was blow away). In general they
are> > places> > > to> > > > >
consider taking "some off the wagon" so to speak if not all
andlook> > for> > > a> > > > >
reversal.> > > > >> > > > > The black
vertical bars in them represent possible timing. The>
black> > > box> > > > to> > > >
> the far left of the band will disappear when the prior peak it is>
> drawn> > > > from> > > > > is exceeded
and the MOB locks in place for price and time.> > > >
>> > > > > Probably more than you wanted to know,
sorry.> > > > > don ewers> > > >
>> > > > >> > > > > ----- Original
Message -----> > > > > From:
<bruce.larson@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>> > > > > To:
<realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>> > > > > Sent:
Wednesday, October 31, 2001 11:10 AM> > > > > Subject: Re:
[RT] bonds long term> > > > >> > > >
>> > > > > > Sorry, what's a MOB? Only MOB I'm
familiar with is the Muniover> > > > > > Bond
spread.> > > > > >> > > > >
>> > > > > > --- In realtraders@xxxx, "Don Ewers"
<dbewers@xxxx> wrote:> > > > > > >
Slawek,> > > > > > > The seasonal (dark green line)
on a AGET US01Z continuous> weekly> > > > >
> would> > > > > > > agree on a February peak (if
not before). February 8, 2002 is> the> > > > >
> peak on> > > > > > > the seasonal for next
year. Looking back on previous years> shows> > >
> > > the> > > > > > > pattern has followed
it quite nicely?> > > > > > >> > > >
> > > That said we are into the wave 5 target range (shown as
.618to> > 1.0> > > > > > > expansion)
with several MOB's overhead (one off the previous> wave> >
3> > > > > > (@111-28> > > > > >
> to 112-26) and the other one is off the1998 peak in bonds>
(@115-16> > > > > > to> > > > > >
> 118-03)) . Where exactly they stop price wise is still an>
unknown> > > > > > but these> > > > >
> > are some areas to watch.> > > > > >
>> > > > > > > Bruce, your 117 pegs the exact
center of the 1998 MOB, FYIW.> > > > > > > don
ewers> > > > > > > ----- Original Message
-----> > > > > > > From: <SLAWEKP@xxxx>>
> > > > > > To: <REALTRADERS@xxxx>> > >
> > > > Sent: Wednesday, October 31, 2001 9:35 AM> >
> > > > > Subject: [RT] bonds long term> > > >
> > >> > > > > > >> > > >
> > > > From weekly inverted 30 yr. Yield> > > >
> > >> > > > > > >> > > >
> > >> > > > > >> > >
-------------------------------------------------------------------->
> > > > > --------> > > > > > >
----> > > > > >> > > > > >>
> > > > >> > > > > > To unsubscribe from
this group, send an email to:> > > > > >
realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> > > > >
>> > > > > >> > > > > >>
> > > > > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to> >
> > <A
href="http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/";>http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/>
> > > > >> > > > > >> > >
> >> > > > >> > > > >> >
> > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:> >
> > > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> > > >
>> > > > >> > > > >> > >
> > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to> > > <A
href="http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/";>http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/>
> > > >> > > > >> > > >>
> > >> > > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an
email to:> > > >
realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> > > >> >
> >> > > >> > > > Your use of Yahoo!
Groups is subject to> > <A
href="http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/";>http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/>
> > >> > > >> > >> >
>> > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email
to:> > > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> >
>> > >> > >> > > Your use of Yahoo!
Groups is subject to> <A
href="http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/";>http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/>
> >> > >> >> >> > To
unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:> >
realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> >> >>
>> > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to<A
href="http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/";>http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/>
>> >>>> To unsubscribe from this group, send
an email to:>
realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>>>> Your
use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to <A
href="http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/";>http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/>>To
unsubscribe from this group, send an email
to:realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxYour
use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the <A
href="http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/";>Yahoo! Terms of Service.
Yahoo! Groups Sponsor
ADVERTISEMENT
To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of Service.
|