|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
Don,
thanks I always learn from you charts!!!!
<FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>-----Original Message-----From: Don Ewers
[mailto:dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]Sent: Friday, November 02, 2001 6:19
PMTo: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: Re: [RT] bonds
long termLee,There are multiple peaks near the
high on the seasonal (green) line. Oneearlier lower high (up near
the top) is on the week of 12-7-01, then the twolater higher tops on the
weeks of 1-11-02 and 2-8-02.The valley thereafter is on the week of
4-5-02.The seasonal was originally overlayed over the price bars on
the monthlychart I sent earlier. As such the seasonal does NOT
relate to a 116 pricehigh and a 107 valley low, I want to make that
clear?As you see in the first gif attached to this post, I can shift
it above theprice bars also (one should not conclude bonds are going to
123 and a valleyof 115 accordingly). Also keep in mind, although
this seasonal has had avery good track record going back to early 2000, it
does not mean thecurrent correlation will continue. For instance in 1999
it was completelywrong (see second gif). My reason for posting it,
was to purely say it hasbeen tracking well as far as pattern SO
FAR.Seasonals are a confirming indicator and it has been said you can
almostmake them say what ever you want (the old "they must be an
invertedseasonal") so I want to caution anyone there. If I had 6
indicators thatwere good, it would be the 7th. There is a seasonal
trade (spread andotherwise) that attempts to play this decline that occurs
between Januaryand sometimes into May though that has a good
record. Anyone who has thecurrent Moore Research recommended
trades for next year on bonds couldpossibly post that trade?Good luck
and good trading,don ewers----- Original Message -----From:
"Lee Morris" <LMorris@xxxxxxxxxx>To:
<realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>Sent: Friday, November 02, 2001 2:53
PMSubject: RE: [RT] bonds long term> don what is the dates
of the next peak and valley on the seasonal around116> and
107> -----Original Message----->
From: Don Ewers [mailto:dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]> Sent:
Friday, November 02, 2001 2:48 PM> To:
realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> Subject: Re: [RT] bonds long
term>>> Attached is the updated 60min chart
(with first 5 hours today)>> At this point the
question would be is wave 3 complete and we are moving>
down in a wave 4 or is this only minor wave 4 of wave 3, with minor
wave5> yet to come, completeing wave
3?>> Both will follow a similar pattern and so far
it appears a .50retracement> has held, but we will have
to see what unfolds. The interesting thingis> the
low PTI of 19 (in Red Box) which says for the moment that a wave
5,if> it materializes, will likely double top near the
highs (maybe just poke> into> that 113-01
expansion?) or if this is still wave 3 the PTI is
anon-issue.> Since the 5/35 oscillator at the bottom of
the chart is still above zero> we> need a few more
hours to go by for for this to work itself out.>>
The weekly is also included (with the green seasonal). As far as it
is> concerned a wave 5 is in, it went into the MOB
resistance off the prior> wave> 3. Prices
exceeded the 1998 high so a major double top in bonds is>
possible> or . . . we have more to go to the upside and the
next MOB?>> That said, the 60min will provide clues
as this retracement unfolds?>> FWIW the 60min wave
count is from the starting point for minor wave 5 of> wave
3 on the daily, chart not included here (as expected the
countthere> changed from a wave 5 to a wave 3 due to
the height of the 5/35> oscillator).> don
ewers>> ----- Original Message
-----> From: "profitok"
<profitok@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>> To:
<realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>> Sent: Thursday,
November 01, 2001 9:40 PM> Subject: Re: [RT] bonds long
term>>> > Is pink line above chart the
seasonally?> > regards> >
Ben> > ----- Original Message ----->
> From: "Earl Adamy" <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>> > To:
<realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>> > Sent: Thursday,
November 01, 2001 9:49 AM> > Subject: Re: [RT] bonds
long term> >>
>> > > Weekly is working very nicely with the
10/70 and long term counts...> so> >
far> > > anyway. Timing mark on the "big MOB in the
sky" is week of 07Dec.> > >> >
> Earl> > >> > > -----
Original Message -----> > > From: "Don Ewers"
<dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>> > > To: "Real Traders"
<realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>> > > Sent:
Thursday, November 01, 2001 7:40 AM> > > Subject: Re:
[RT] bonds long term> > >> >
>> > > > With the type of power move in the
bonds made on 10-31-01 Idecided> to> >
see> > > > if the 5/35 oscillator was possibly
putting in a new high which> would> > >
shift> > > > the 5 wave count to a wave 3
(previously using 10/70 and long term> EW> > >
count> > > > due to the depth of the prior wave 4
pullback). As expected the> count> >
has> > > > expanded to the next "degree. Old wave
3 becomes wave 1, old wave4> > >
becomes> > > > wave 2, and finally old wave 5
becomes wave 3.> > > >> >
> > Since we are in the wave 3 target range (see chart) then a
pullback> > could> > > >
start any time in here for a wave 4, which would be
subsequently> > followed> > >
by> > > > a wave 5.> > >
>> > > > Bottom line if we are headed higher we
may not go straight up to> that> > >
higher> > > > level (which would fit with the
December high dates forcast bysome>
and> > > > others out to early
February)?> > > > don ewers>
> > > ----- Original Message -----> > > >
From: "Don Ewers" <dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>> > >
> To: "Real Traders"
<realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>> > > > Sent:
Wednesday, October 31, 2001 2:36 PM> > > >
Subject: Re: [RT] bonds long term> > >
>> > > >> > > >
> Bruce,> > > > > I would be unfair to not
post an example of a MOB failure (the>
"break"> > > > side> > >
> > of the equation). So here is one.> > > >
>> > > > > I have been posting that bonds
were in a wave 5 on a 60min chart> and> > >
> > "should" move higher (a move also supported by the daily and>
weekly> > > > charts).> >
> > > The MOB off the 60min wave 3 is on the attached chart
between> 108-17> > and> >
> > > 108-26. So prices should "make" the MOB, would be what one
would> be> > > >
looking> > > > > for.> >
> > >> > > > > Assuming you use a
60min chart to trade, you would have taken>
profits> > at> > > >
the> > > > > MOB. After which with the
weekly showing higher MOBS, maybe buya> > >
retrace> > > > > or reverse if such a sell
signal appeared. The movement through> the>
> MOB> > > > > like this tells you something
(particullarly had it been more> >
orderly).> > > > Now> > >
> > whether you could get back on board or not is another
question> with> > this> >
> > > kind of power move, but had it moved through and closed
above,> then> > took> >
> > out> > > > > the high of that bar, it
is a signal to get back on board and go> to>
a> > > > higher> > > >
> time frame for targets (like the weekly posted
earlier).> > > > >> >
> > > I just don't want anyone thinking these things are
magical.> > > > >> > >
> > You will notice prices temporarily stalled underneath the
60min> MOB> > > though>
> > > > before busting through.> > > >
> don ewers> > > > >>
> > > > ----- Original Message -----> > >
> > From: "Don Ewers" <dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>>
> > > > To:
<realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>> > > > >
Sent: Wednesday, October 31, 2001 11:29 AM> > > >
> Subject: Re: [RT] bonds long term> > > >
>> > > > >> > >
> > > Bruce,> > > > > > MOB stands
for Make Or Break and it is a tool within the AGET> >
program.> > > > The> > >
> > > "bands" represent target areas based on prior price
action> pattern> > and> >
> > are> > > > > > calculated off of
previous peaks. I considered them additiveto>
the> > > > > > standard fib expansion ranges
that project areas where a> specific> >
wave> > > > > might> >
> > > > end. In that regard they zero in on a 'tighter"
possibletarget> > > range.>
> > > > Do> > > > > > the always
hold nope, are they always reached nope, can theybe>
> > exceeded> > > > > > yes, nothing
is perfect, but I have found them to be very>
helpful.> > > > > >> >
> > > > Essentially price is likely to "make" it there and if
it> "breaks"> it> > >
on> > > > a> > > >
> > closing basis can be a sign of an extended move above
it> > (essentially> > > >
what> > > > > > should have been resistance
was blow away). In general theyare> > >
places> > > > to> > >
> > > consider taking "some off the wagon" so to speak if not
alland> look> > >
for> > > > a> > > >
> > reversal.> > > > >
>> > > > > > The black vertical bars in
them represent possible timing.The> >
black> > > > box> > >
> > to> > > > > > the far left of the
band will disappear when the prior peak it> is> >
> drawn> > > > > from>
> > > > > is exceeded and the MOB locks in place for price and
time.> > > > > >> >
> > > > Probably more than you wanted to know,
sorry.> > > > > > don
ewers> > > > > >> >
> > > >> > > > > > -----
Original Message -----> > > > > > From:
<bruce.larson@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>> > > > >
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>> > >
> > > Sent: Wednesday, October 31, 2001 11:10 AM>
> > > > > Subject: Re: [RT] bonds long term>
> > > > >> > > > >
>> > > > > > > Sorry, what's a
MOB? Only MOB I'm familiar with is the Muni>
over> > > > > > > Bond
spread.> > > > > > >>
> > > > > >> > > > > >
> --- In realtraders@xxxx, "Don Ewers" <dbewers@xxxx>
wrote:> > > > > > > >
Slawek,> > > > > > > > The seasonal
(dark green line) on a AGET US01Z continuous> >
weekly> > > > > > >
would> > > > > > > > agree on a
February peak (if not before). February 8,2002>
is> > the> > > > > >
> peak on> > > > > > > > the
seasonal for next year. Looking back on
previousyears> > shows> > >
> > > > the> > > > > > > >
pattern has followed it quite nicely?> > > > >
> > >> > > > > > > > That
said we are into the wave 5 target range (shown as.618>
to> > > 1.0> > > > >
> > > expansion) with several MOB's overhead (one off
theprevious> > wave> > >
3> > > > > > >
(@111-28> > > > > > > > to 112-26) and
the other one is off the1998 peak in bonds> >
(@115-16> > > > > > >
to> > > > > > > > 118-03)) .
Where exactly they stop price wise is still an> >
unknown> > > > > > > but
these> > > > > > > > are some areas to
watch.> > > > > > >
>> > > > > > > > Bruce, your 117
pegs the exact center of the 1998 MOB,FYIW.> > >
> > > > > don ewers> > > > >
> > > ----- Original Message -----> > > >
> > > > From: <SLAWEKP@xxxx>> > >
> > > > > To: <REALTRADERS@xxxx>> >
> > > > > > Sent: Wednesday, October 31, 2001 9:35
AM> > > > > > > > Subject: [RT] bonds
long term> > > > > > >
>> > > > > > >
>> > > > > > > > > From weekly
inverted 30 yr. Yield> > > > > > >
>> > > > > > >
>> > > > > > >
>> > > > > > >>
> >>
-------------------------------------------------------------------->
> > > > > > --------> > > > >
> > > ----> > > > > >
>> > > > > > >>
> > > > > >> > > > > >
> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:>
> > > > > >
realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> > > >
> > >> > > > > >
>> > > > > > >>
> > > > > > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject
to> > > > > <A
href="http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/";>http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/>
> > > > > >> > > > > >
>> > > > > >> >
> > > >> > > > >
>> > > > > > To unsubscribe from this
group, send an email to:> > > > > >
realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> > > >
> >> > > > > >>
> > > > >> > > > > > Your use
of Yahoo! Groups is subject to> > > > <A
href="http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/";>http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/>
> > > > >> > > > >
>> > > > >> > >
> >> > > > > To unsubscribe from this
group, send an email to:> > > > >
realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> > > >
>> > > > >> > >
> >> > > > > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is
subject to> > > <A
href="http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/";>http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/>
> > > >> > > >
>> > > >> > >
>> > > > To unsubscribe from this group, send
an email to:> > > >
realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> > >
>> > > >> > >
>> > > > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject
to> > <A
href="http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/";>http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/>
> > >> > > >> >
>> > >> > > To
unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:> > >
realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> >
>> > >> >
>> > > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject
to> <A
href="http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/";>http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/>
> >> > >>
>> >> > To unsubscribe from
this group, send an email to:> >
realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>> >> >>
> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to> <A
href="http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/";>http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/>
>>
>>> Yahoo!
Groups
Sponsor>
ADVERTISEMENT>>>>> To
unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:>
realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>>>>
Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of
Service.>>To
unsubscribe from this group, send an email
to:realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxYour
use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the <A
href="http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/";>Yahoo! Terms of Service.
To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of Service.
|