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Attached is the updated 60min chart (with first 5 hours today)
At this point the question would be is wave 3 complete and we are moving
down in a wave 4 or is this only minor wave 4 of wave 3, with minor wave 5
yet to come, completeing wave 3?
Both will follow a similar pattern and so far it appears a .50 retracement
has held, but we will have to see what unfolds. The interesting thing is
the low PTI of 19 (in Red Box) which says for the moment that a wave 5, if
it materializes, will likely double top near the highs (maybe just poke into
that 113-01 expansion?) or if this is still wave 3 the PTI is a non-issue.
Since the 5/35 oscillator at the bottom of the chart is still above zero we
need a few more hours to go by for for this to work itself out.
The weekly is also included (with the green seasonal). As far as it is
concerned a wave 5 is in, it went into the MOB resistance off the prior wave
3. Prices exceeded the 1998 high so a major double top in bonds is possible
or . . . we have more to go to the upside and the next MOB?
That said, the 60min will provide clues as this retracement unfolds?
FWIW the 60min wave count is from the starting point for minor wave 5 of
wave 3 on the daily, chart not included here (as expected the count there
changed from a wave 5 to a wave 3 due to the height of the 5/35 oscillator).
don ewers
----- Original Message -----
From: "profitok" <profitok@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Thursday, November 01, 2001 9:40 PM
Subject: Re: [RT] bonds long term
> Is pink line above chart the seasonally?
> regards
> Ben
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Earl Adamy" <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Thursday, November 01, 2001 9:49 AM
> Subject: Re: [RT] bonds long term
>
>
> > Weekly is working very nicely with the 10/70 and long term counts ... so
> far
> > anyway. Timing mark on the "big MOB in the sky" is week of 07Dec.
> >
> > Earl
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Don Ewers" <dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > To: "Real Traders" <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Sent: Thursday, November 01, 2001 7:40 AM
> > Subject: Re: [RT] bonds long term
> >
> >
> > > With the type of power move in the bonds made on 10-31-01 I decided to
> see
> > > if the 5/35 oscillator was possibly putting in a new high which would
> > shift
> > > the 5 wave count to a wave 3 (previously using 10/70 and long term EW
> > count
> > > due to the depth of the prior wave 4 pullback). As expected the count
> has
> > > expanded to the next "degree. Old wave 3 becomes wave 1, old wave 4
> > becomes
> > > wave 2, and finally old wave 5 becomes wave 3.
> > >
> > > Since we are in the wave 3 target range (see chart) then a pull back
> could
> > > start any time in here for a wave 4, which would be subsequently
> followed
> > by
> > > a wave 5.
> > >
> > > Bottom line if we are headed higher we may not go straight up to that
> > higher
> > > level (which would fit with the December high dates forcast by some
and
> > > others out to early February)?
> > > don ewers
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: "Don Ewers" <dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > To: "Real Traders" <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > Sent: Wednesday, October 31, 2001 2:36 PM
> > > Subject: Re: [RT] bonds long term
> > >
> > >
> > > > Bruce,
> > > > I would be unfair to not post an example of a MOB failure (the
"break"
> > > side
> > > > of the equation). So here is one.
> > > >
> > > > I have been posting that bonds were in a wave 5 on a 60min chart and
> > > > "should" move higher (a move also supported by the daily and weekly
> > > charts).
> > > > The MOB off the 60min wave 3 is on the attached chart between 108-17
> and
> > > > 108-26. So prices should "make" the MOB, would be what one would be
> > > looking
> > > > for.
> > > >
> > > > Assuming you use a 60min chart to trade, you would have taken
profits
> at
> > > the
> > > > MOB. After which with the weekly showing higher MOBS, maybe buy a
> > retrace
> > > > or reverse if such a sell signal appeared. The movement through the
> MOB
> > > > like this tells you something (particullarly had it been more
> orderly).
> > > Now
> > > > whether you could get back on board or not is another question with
> this
> > > > kind of power move, but had it moved through and closed above, then
> took
> > > out
> > > > the high of that bar, it is a signal to get back on board and go to
a
> > > higher
> > > > time frame for targets (like the weekly posted earlier).
> > > >
> > > > I just don't want anyone thinking these things are magical.
> > > >
> > > > You will notice prices temporarily stalled underneath the 60min MOB
> > though
> > > > before busting through.
> > > > don ewers
> > > >
> > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > From: "Don Ewers" <dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > Sent: Wednesday, October 31, 2001 11:29 AM
> > > > Subject: Re: [RT] bonds long term
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > > Bruce,
> > > > > MOB stands for Make Or Break and it is a tool within the AGET
> program.
> > > The
> > > > > "bands" represent target areas based on prior price action pattern
> and
> > > are
> > > > > calculated off of previous peaks. I considered them additive to
the
> > > > > standard fib expansion ranges that project areas where a specific
> wave
> > > > might
> > > > > end. In that regard they zero in on a 'tighter" possible target
> > range.
> > > > Do
> > > > > the always hold nope, are they always reached nope, can they be
> > exceeded
> > > > > yes, nothing is perfect, but I have found them to be very helpful.
> > > > >
> > > > > Essentially price is likely to "make" it there and if it "breaks"
it
> > on
> > > a
> > > > > closing basis can be a sign of an extended move above it
> (essentially
> > > what
> > > > > should have been resistance was blow away). In general they are
> > places
> > > to
> > > > > consider taking "some off the wagon" so to speak if not all and
look
> > for
> > > a
> > > > > reversal.
> > > > >
> > > > > The black vertical bars in them represent possible timing. The
> black
> > > box
> > > > to
> > > > > the far left of the band will disappear when the prior peak it is
> > drawn
> > > > from
> > > > > is exceeded and the MOB locks in place for price and time.
> > > > >
> > > > > Probably more than you wanted to know, sorry.
> > > > > don ewers
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > From: <bruce.larson@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > > Sent: Wednesday, October 31, 2001 11:10 AM
> > > > > Subject: Re: [RT] bonds long term
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > > Sorry, what's a MOB? Only MOB I'm familiar with is the Muni
over
> > > > > > Bond spread.
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > --- In realtraders@xxxx, "Don Ewers" <dbewers@xxxx> wrote:
> > > > > > > Slawek,
> > > > > > > The seasonal (dark green line) on a AGET US01Z continuous
> weekly
> > > > > > would
> > > > > > > agree on a February peak (if not before). February 8, 2002 is
> the
> > > > > > peak on
> > > > > > > the seasonal for next year. Looking back on previous years
> shows
> > > > > > the
> > > > > > > pattern has followed it quite nicely?
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > That said we are into the wave 5 target range (shown as .618
to
> > 1.0
> > > > > > > expansion) with several MOB's overhead (one off the previous
> wave
> > 3
> > > > > > (@111-28
> > > > > > > to 112-26) and the other one is off the1998 peak in bonds
> (@115-16
> > > > > > to
> > > > > > > 118-03)) . Where exactly they stop price wise is still an
> unknown
> > > > > > but these
> > > > > > > are some areas to watch.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Bruce, your 117 pegs the exact center of the 1998 MOB, FYIW.
> > > > > > > don ewers
> > > > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > > > From: <SLAWEKP@xxxx>
> > > > > > > To: <REALTRADERS@xxxx>
> > > > > > > Sent: Wednesday, October 31, 2001 9:35 AM
> > > > > > > Subject: [RT] bonds long term
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > From weekly inverted 30 yr. Yield
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > --------------------------------------------------------------------
> > > > > > --------
> > > > > > > ----
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
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Attachment:
Description: "US01Zweek110101.gif"
Attachment:
Description: "RB01Z60min110201WI5.gif"
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