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I apologize the wrong wave 3 expansion was shown on the previous chart i
posted. The attach chart shows the new target range.
Everything else stays the same except given the 1.618 expansion is above the
old 1998 high. If prices were to get there in short order an area to watch
for a wave 4 to appear? Keep in mind these are projections it does not mean
we HAVE to go there.
don ewers
----- Original Message -----
From: "Don Ewers" <dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: "Real Traders" <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Thursday, November 01, 2001 8:40 AM
Subject: Re: [RT] bonds long term
> With the type of power move in the bonds made on 10-31-01 I decided to see
> if the 5/35 oscillator was possibly putting in a new high which would
shift
> the 5 wave count to a wave 3 (previously using 10/70 and long term EW
count
> due to the depth of the prior wave 4 pullback). As expected the count has
> expanded to the next "degree. Old wave 3 becomes wave 1, old wave 4
becomes
> wave 2, and finally old wave 5 becomes wave 3.
>
> Since we are in the wave 3 target range (see chart) then a pull back could
> start any time in here for a wave 4, which would be subsequently followed
by
> a wave 5.
>
> Bottom line if we are headed higher we may not go straight up to that
higher
> level (which would fit with the December high dates forcast by some and
> others out to early February)?
> don ewers
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Don Ewers" <dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: "Real Traders" <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Wednesday, October 31, 2001 2:36 PM
> Subject: Re: [RT] bonds long term
>
>
> > Bruce,
> > I would be unfair to not post an example of a MOB failure (the "break"
> side
> > of the equation). So here is one.
> >
> > I have been posting that bonds were in a wave 5 on a 60min chart and
> > "should" move higher (a move also supported by the daily and weekly
> charts).
> > The MOB off the 60min wave 3 is on the attached chart between 108-17 and
> > 108-26. So prices should "make" the MOB, would be what one would be
> looking
> > for.
> >
> > Assuming you use a 60min chart to trade, you would have taken profits at
> the
> > MOB. After which with the weekly showing higher MOBS, maybe buy a
retrace
> > or reverse if such a sell signal appeared. The movement through the MOB
> > like this tells you something (particullarly had it been more orderly).
> Now
> > whether you could get back on board or not is another question with this
> > kind of power move, but had it moved through and closed above, then took
> out
> > the high of that bar, it is a signal to get back on board and go to a
> higher
> > time frame for targets (like the weekly posted earlier).
> >
> > I just don't want anyone thinking these things are magical.
> >
> > You will notice prices temporarily stalled underneath the 60min MOB
though
> > before busting through.
> > don ewers
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Don Ewers" <dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Sent: Wednesday, October 31, 2001 11:29 AM
> > Subject: Re: [RT] bonds long term
> >
> >
> > > Bruce,
> > > MOB stands for Make Or Break and it is a tool within the AGET program.
> The
> > > "bands" represent target areas based on prior price action pattern and
> are
> > > calculated off of previous peaks. I considered them additive to the
> > > standard fib expansion ranges that project areas where a specific wave
> > might
> > > end. In that regard they zero in on a 'tighter" possible target
range.
> > Do
> > > the always hold nope, are they always reached nope, can they be
exceeded
> > > yes, nothing is perfect, but I have found them to be very helpful.
> > >
> > > Essentially price is likely to "make" it there and if it "breaks" it
on
> a
> > > closing basis can be a sign of an extended move above it (essentially
> what
> > > should have been resistance was blow away). In general they are
places
> to
> > > consider taking "some off the wagon" so to speak if not all and look
for
> a
> > > reversal.
> > >
> > > The black vertical bars in them represent possible timing. The black
> box
> > to
> > > the far left of the band will disappear when the prior peak it is
drawn
> > from
> > > is exceeded and the MOB locks in place for price and time.
> > >
> > > Probably more than you wanted to know, sorry.
> > > don ewers
> > >
> > >
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: <bruce.larson@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > Sent: Wednesday, October 31, 2001 11:10 AM
> > > Subject: Re: [RT] bonds long term
> > >
> > >
> > > > Sorry, what's a MOB? Only MOB I'm familiar with is the Muni over
> > > > Bond spread.
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > --- In realtraders@xxxx, "Don Ewers" <dbewers@xxxx> wrote:
> > > > > Slawek,
> > > > > The seasonal (dark green line) on a AGET US01Z continuous weekly
> > > > would
> > > > > agree on a February peak (if not before). February 8, 2002 is the
> > > > peak on
> > > > > the seasonal for next year. Looking back on previous years shows
> > > > the
> > > > > pattern has followed it quite nicely?
> > > > >
> > > > > That said we are into the wave 5 target range (shown as .618 to
1.0
> > > > > expansion) with several MOB's overhead (one off the previous wave
3
> > > > (@111-28
> > > > > to 112-26) and the other one is off the1998 peak in bonds (@115-16
> > > > to
> > > > > 118-03)) . Where exactly they stop price wise is still an unknown
> > > > but these
> > > > > are some areas to watch.
> > > > >
> > > > > Bruce, your 117 pegs the exact center of the 1998 MOB, FYIW.
> > > > > don ewers
> > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > From: <SLAWEKP@xxxx>
> > > > > To: <REALTRADERS@xxxx>
> > > > > Sent: Wednesday, October 31, 2001 9:35 AM
> > > > > Subject: [RT] bonds long term
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > > From weekly inverted 30 yr. Yield
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > >
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