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Weekly is working very nicely with the 10/70 and long term counts ... so far
anyway. Timing mark on the "big MOB in the sky" is week of 07Dec.
Earl
----- Original Message -----
From: "Don Ewers" <dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: "Real Traders" <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Thursday, November 01, 2001 7:40 AM
Subject: Re: [RT] bonds long term
> With the type of power move in the bonds made on 10-31-01 I decided to see
> if the 5/35 oscillator was possibly putting in a new high which would
shift
> the 5 wave count to a wave 3 (previously using 10/70 and long term EW
count
> due to the depth of the prior wave 4 pullback). As expected the count has
> expanded to the next "degree. Old wave 3 becomes wave 1, old wave 4
becomes
> wave 2, and finally old wave 5 becomes wave 3.
>
> Since we are in the wave 3 target range (see chart) then a pull back could
> start any time in here for a wave 4, which would be subsequently followed
by
> a wave 5.
>
> Bottom line if we are headed higher we may not go straight up to that
higher
> level (which would fit with the December high dates forcast by some and
> others out to early February)?
> don ewers
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Don Ewers" <dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: "Real Traders" <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Wednesday, October 31, 2001 2:36 PM
> Subject: Re: [RT] bonds long term
>
>
> > Bruce,
> > I would be unfair to not post an example of a MOB failure (the "break"
> side
> > of the equation). So here is one.
> >
> > I have been posting that bonds were in a wave 5 on a 60min chart and
> > "should" move higher (a move also supported by the daily and weekly
> charts).
> > The MOB off the 60min wave 3 is on the attached chart between 108-17 and
> > 108-26. So prices should "make" the MOB, would be what one would be
> looking
> > for.
> >
> > Assuming you use a 60min chart to trade, you would have taken profits at
> the
> > MOB. After which with the weekly showing higher MOBS, maybe buy a
retrace
> > or reverse if such a sell signal appeared. The movement through the MOB
> > like this tells you something (particullarly had it been more orderly).
> Now
> > whether you could get back on board or not is another question with this
> > kind of power move, but had it moved through and closed above, then took
> out
> > the high of that bar, it is a signal to get back on board and go to a
> higher
> > time frame for targets (like the weekly posted earlier).
> >
> > I just don't want anyone thinking these things are magical.
> >
> > You will notice prices temporarily stalled underneath the 60min MOB
though
> > before busting through.
> > don ewers
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Don Ewers" <dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Sent: Wednesday, October 31, 2001 11:29 AM
> > Subject: Re: [RT] bonds long term
> >
> >
> > > Bruce,
> > > MOB stands for Make Or Break and it is a tool within the AGET program.
> The
> > > "bands" represent target areas based on prior price action pattern and
> are
> > > calculated off of previous peaks. I considered them additive to the
> > > standard fib expansion ranges that project areas where a specific wave
> > might
> > > end. In that regard they zero in on a 'tighter" possible target
range.
> > Do
> > > the always hold nope, are they always reached nope, can they be
exceeded
> > > yes, nothing is perfect, but I have found them to be very helpful.
> > >
> > > Essentially price is likely to "make" it there and if it "breaks" it
on
> a
> > > closing basis can be a sign of an extended move above it (essentially
> what
> > > should have been resistance was blow away). In general they are
places
> to
> > > consider taking "some off the wagon" so to speak if not all and look
for
> a
> > > reversal.
> > >
> > > The black vertical bars in them represent possible timing. The black
> box
> > to
> > > the far left of the band will disappear when the prior peak it is
drawn
> > from
> > > is exceeded and the MOB locks in place for price and time.
> > >
> > > Probably more than you wanted to know, sorry.
> > > don ewers
> > >
> > >
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: <bruce.larson@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > Sent: Wednesday, October 31, 2001 11:10 AM
> > > Subject: Re: [RT] bonds long term
> > >
> > >
> > > > Sorry, what's a MOB? Only MOB I'm familiar with is the Muni over
> > > > Bond spread.
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > --- In realtraders@xxxx, "Don Ewers" <dbewers@xxxx> wrote:
> > > > > Slawek,
> > > > > The seasonal (dark green line) on a AGET US01Z continuous weekly
> > > > would
> > > > > agree on a February peak (if not before). February 8, 2002 is the
> > > > peak on
> > > > > the seasonal for next year. Looking back on previous years shows
> > > > the
> > > > > pattern has followed it quite nicely?
> > > > >
> > > > > That said we are into the wave 5 target range (shown as .618 to
1.0
> > > > > expansion) with several MOB's overhead (one off the previous wave
3
> > > > (@111-28
> > > > > to 112-26) and the other one is off the1998 peak in bonds (@115-16
> > > > to
> > > > > 118-03)) . Where exactly they stop price wise is still an unknown
> > > > but these
> > > > > are some areas to watch.
> > > > >
> > > > > Bruce, your 117 pegs the exact center of the 1998 MOB, FYIW.
> > > > > don ewers
> > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > From: <SLAWEKP@xxxx>
> > > > > To: <REALTRADERS@xxxx>
> > > > > Sent: Wednesday, October 31, 2001 9:35 AM
> > > > > Subject: [RT] bonds long term
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > > From weekly inverted 30 yr. Yield
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > >
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