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With the type of power move in the bonds made on 10-31-01 I decided to see
if the 5/35 oscillator was possibly putting in a new high which would shift
the 5 wave count to a wave 3 (previously using 10/70 and long term EW count
due to the depth of the prior wave 4 pullback). As expected the count has
expanded to the next "degree. Old wave 3 becomes wave 1, old wave 4 becomes
wave 2, and finally old wave 5 becomes wave 3.
Since we are in the wave 3 target range (see chart) then a pull back could
start any time in here for a wave 4, which would be subsequently followed by
a wave 5.
Bottom line if we are headed higher we may not go straight up to that higher
level (which would fit with the December high dates forcast by some and
others out to early February)?
don ewers
----- Original Message -----
From: "Don Ewers" <dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: "Real Traders" <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Wednesday, October 31, 2001 2:36 PM
Subject: Re: [RT] bonds long term
> Bruce,
> I would be unfair to not post an example of a MOB failure (the "break"
side
> of the equation). So here is one.
>
> I have been posting that bonds were in a wave 5 on a 60min chart and
> "should" move higher (a move also supported by the daily and weekly
charts).
> The MOB off the 60min wave 3 is on the attached chart between 108-17 and
> 108-26. So prices should "make" the MOB, would be what one would be
looking
> for.
>
> Assuming you use a 60min chart to trade, you would have taken profits at
the
> MOB. After which with the weekly showing higher MOBS, maybe buy a retrace
> or reverse if such a sell signal appeared. The movement through the MOB
> like this tells you something (particullarly had it been more orderly).
Now
> whether you could get back on board or not is another question with this
> kind of power move, but had it moved through and closed above, then took
out
> the high of that bar, it is a signal to get back on board and go to a
higher
> time frame for targets (like the weekly posted earlier).
>
> I just don't want anyone thinking these things are magical.
>
> You will notice prices temporarily stalled underneath the 60min MOB though
> before busting through.
> don ewers
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Don Ewers" <dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Wednesday, October 31, 2001 11:29 AM
> Subject: Re: [RT] bonds long term
>
>
> > Bruce,
> > MOB stands for Make Or Break and it is a tool within the AGET program.
The
> > "bands" represent target areas based on prior price action pattern and
are
> > calculated off of previous peaks. I considered them additive to the
> > standard fib expansion ranges that project areas where a specific wave
> might
> > end. In that regard they zero in on a 'tighter" possible target range.
> Do
> > the always hold nope, are they always reached nope, can they be exceeded
> > yes, nothing is perfect, but I have found them to be very helpful.
> >
> > Essentially price is likely to "make" it there and if it "breaks" it on
a
> > closing basis can be a sign of an extended move above it (essentially
what
> > should have been resistance was blow away). In general they are places
to
> > consider taking "some off the wagon" so to speak if not all and look for
a
> > reversal.
> >
> > The black vertical bars in them represent possible timing. The black
box
> to
> > the far left of the band will disappear when the prior peak it is drawn
> from
> > is exceeded and the MOB locks in place for price and time.
> >
> > Probably more than you wanted to know, sorry.
> > don ewers
> >
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: <bruce.larson@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Sent: Wednesday, October 31, 2001 11:10 AM
> > Subject: Re: [RT] bonds long term
> >
> >
> > > Sorry, what's a MOB? Only MOB I'm familiar with is the Muni over
> > > Bond spread.
> > >
> > >
> > > --- In realtraders@xxxx, "Don Ewers" <dbewers@xxxx> wrote:
> > > > Slawek,
> > > > The seasonal (dark green line) on a AGET US01Z continuous weekly
> > > would
> > > > agree on a February peak (if not before). February 8, 2002 is the
> > > peak on
> > > > the seasonal for next year. Looking back on previous years shows
> > > the
> > > > pattern has followed it quite nicely?
> > > >
> > > > That said we are into the wave 5 target range (shown as .618 to 1.0
> > > > expansion) with several MOB's overhead (one off the previous wave 3
> > > (@111-28
> > > > to 112-26) and the other one is off the1998 peak in bonds (@115-16
> > > to
> > > > 118-03)) . Where exactly they stop price wise is still an unknown
> > > but these
> > > > are some areas to watch.
> > > >
> > > > Bruce, your 117 pegs the exact center of the 1998 MOB, FYIW.
> > > > don ewers
> > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > From: <SLAWEKP@xxxx>
> > > > To: <REALTRADERS@xxxx>
> > > > Sent: Wednesday, October 31, 2001 9:35 AM
> > > > Subject: [RT] bonds long term
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > > From weekly inverted 30 yr. Yield
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > --------------------------------------------------------------------
> > > --------
> > > > ----
> > >
> > >
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