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DC,
You rang? <G> Yes, I am long Coffee and yes I got in too early. If you
are looking for a bargain, I think Cotton is relatively even cheaper than
Coffee. Cotton made a low in 1932 at 8 cents. Now Cotton is 31 cents, which
allowing for a 3% inflation rate would be equivalent to 4 cents in 1932
dollars. So adjusted for inflation, Cotton is now 1/2 of what it was at its
1932 low. Based on studying Cotton prices for the past century, I can tell
you that Cotton tends to be a very trending market. It usually doesn't mess
around with long bases or distrubution patterns. Once it turns, it is off to
the races. Coming off lows during the past 40 years, within 6 months, it was
usually 20-30 cents higher from the low. Each 1 cent move in Cotton = $500
in real money. Yes, there is currently a projected record bumper crop in
Cotton. All markets have very bearish news at the bottom. For example, a few
years ago, when I bought sugar at 4 cents, the news said there was no end to
cheap Brazilian sugar production. Within one year, Sugar traded up to 11
cents. I think any sign of economic upturn will get the cottonatails
running. Travel at your own risk.
"Get down get down pick a bale of cotton, get down get down, pick a bale of
hay."
Cottonpickingly,
Norman
----- Original Message -----
From: <dennisconn@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Tuesday, October 16, 2001 7:08 PM
Subject: [RT] java blues
> Hello group,
>
> Been out of touch with RT for some time, and decided to drop by the
> message board. I was amazed that there were no posts about coffee
> futures, seeing as how it's hit 30 year lows this week. Maybe nobody
> is talking 'cause you're ALL loading up...
>
> I've been saving my pennies (hey, margins are under half what they
> were last time I checked) and awaiting confirmation of the inevitable
> trend change. Any of you prognosticators care to toss out the final
> level of support for this 4&1/2 year decline? Winski?
>
> There have been some LARGE moves from the 45 level in the past, so I
> imagine there could be at least some kind of rally soon. I'm no
> expert, but I can see the potential of an initial move to 70, and
> perhaps 145 over several months. Any opinions?
>
> DC
>
>
>
> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
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>
>
>
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>
>
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