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Hello
I do not know how many of you remember Walter article in stock and commodity
mag,, a few years ago,,
it was about the tiger waiting for the hunt,,
Waiting for the right time,, the right opportunity,,
We are all under pressure to keep making money,, HOWEVER,, most of us
miss the boat,, as if you wait for the extremes,, you WILL
increase your odds for a successful trade,,
So,, instead of trading daily,, you trade, only 3-4 times a month,, But,,
your probability,, for a successful trade,, is MUCH,, better,,
Examples,,
p/c above 2.0
5 day trin at a 21 day hi or a 21 day low,,
Vix at a 34 day hi or 34 day low,,
We all have tools,, but we are not patient enough to use part or all,,
nice weekend
Ben
----- Original Message -----
From: "Don Thompson" <detomps@xxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Saturday, October 06, 2001 12:58 PM
Subject: [RT] Escape Clause
> Bobr,
> I know that most people consider the probability thing a kind of slippery
> eel.. XYZ says a 70% chance of ABC happening. One has to keep in mind,
as
> Mike Fergeson recently reminded me, that a set of trades off of any
> methodology will have a random distribution in its results, of say 75%
> profitable trades.
> I don't see the 10% of it not happening as an escape clause, emotionally
it
> might feel like that, but that is the measurement of what happens.
>
> No one in the RT or WHIT's or AstroFinance has been able to document a
> probabilty against a given Astro event.
> I remember ZTrader carping for weeks about this.
> Having worked in honing the probability thing for over three years now,
80%
> or better in my work is dang good odds.
> I have looked at HL Camp's work a couple of years ago, he publishes odds,
> but never really explains the meaning of an a 60% of it happening, or 70%
or
> 75%. 75% is a one in four failure. Emotionally that is pretty high. He
> works his odds off of DJIA history, and in my opinion, it is a waste of
time
> in reading and actually clutters your head.
>
> The emotional problem with odds, is one's attachement to a set of odds,
Ben
> really did publish the odds of the S&P making a higher high, nor did he
put
> in context the odds for a lower low. Hence, he didn't describe the set of
> odds for what happens in the market, HH, LL, higher close or lower close.
> If one got emotionally hung on the statement, "higher odds" then one is
> placing one's own interpretation of what higher odds are
>
> My work said, nix of a HH, because of a 77% chance of a lower low and a
62%
> chance of a higher high. Yet I knew that there was 42% chance of an
outside
> day. So I was prepared for a higher high. If Ben's odds for a higher high
> was at 70% that is higher odds, but it is in my opinion, about as good as
> coin flip, I only get excited when I see near 80% odds.
>
> I guess my point is I like to know my odds, and what my escape clause is
> for the next day. It is better than working against, dynamic price
fluidity
> and intuitive instablity.. :)
>
> Don
>
>
>
>
>
> Subject: Re: [RT] MKT - option sentiment/sp/nasdaq
>
>
> > Like the Fed X commercial says, "right on, bullseye" save ten percent
with
> > ontime timing. The normalized option ratio peaked as the OEX peaked.
> > Speaking of timing, what happened to Arch Crawford's crash this week?
As
> > for Ben's 90%, that leaves 10% for it not to happen. Problem with
> > probability is it always has an escape clause.
> >
> > bobr
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "M. Simms" <prosys@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Sent: Friday, October 05, 2001 9:23 PM
> > Subject: RE: [RT] MKT - option sentiment/sp/nasdaq
> >
> >
> > > Hmmm.....the late afternoon rally crushed this ND prediction.....
> > > sure that was 90% ?
> > >
> > >
> > > > -----Original Message-----
> > > > From: profitok [mailto:profitok@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]
> > > > Sent: Friday, October 05, 2001 12:13 AM
> > > > To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > > Subject: Re: [RT] MKT - option sentiment/sp/nasdaq
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Hello
> > > > SP has hi odds of making a higher hi tomorrow and
> > > > NASDAQ,, has BETTER then 90% n chance of closing LOWER
> > > > nice long weekend
> > > > Ben
> > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > From: "BobR" <bobrabcd@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > Sent: Thursday, October 04, 2001 11:19 PM
> > > > Subject: [RT] MKT - option sentiment
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > > During the bear trend this Exchange Composite indicator has
> > > > made highs at
> > > > > 0.5+ as the OEX made coincident highs. Thursday's data resulted
in
> > > > another
> > > > > turning point indication. The indicator is simply the sum of all
> the
> > > > $Calls
> > > > > divided by the sum of the $Calls and $Puts.
> > > > >
> > > > > bobr
> > > > > http://www.oextrader.com/sigma_trader
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
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> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
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> > > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
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> > >
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> > >
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