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I think you will see sell the news either way as
1/2 pt is priced in already.. also key to watch the US$... once it rolls over
which it surely could again you will see foreign sellers come in again on long
end... with concerns of USA going into deficit spending you are seeing the pros
move to short end.. and Swissy is safe haven vs US$ in war
time..
so plenty reason to be nervous about this leg up
in bonds.... while it is possible they go a bit further... I don't have vol from
yesterday but would guess this rally continues on lite vol which would be
caution sign...
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----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
Lee Morris
To: <A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx"
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Tuesday, October 02, 2001 11:32
AM
Subject: RE: [RT] Bonds
Just
trying to figure out what senerio would make the equities go down to retest
and bonds to roll over as suggested on the prev chart. If the fed only cut 1/4
then equities will be disapointed in the short term and head for the retest
and bonds would soften as the cycle may be close to ending. just thinking and
typing. any other thoughts
<FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>-----Original Message-----From: Don Ewers
[mailto:dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]Sent: Tuesday, October 02, 2001
11:17 AMTo: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: Re:
[RT] BondsDorthy,In the FWIW department the
short term count on the 60min chart in AGET (andthe 5/17 oscillator)
indicated a further move up which materialized today itwould appear.
Attached is a 60min chart with the first two hours todayshowing
the prices rallied up to the MOB so far today?I will update
the daily and weekly after todays fed move, to see if thereare any good
indications the higher level MOB's there are possible.Point being
when this thing has run its course it will be a great short withall this
stimulus?don ewers----- Original Message -----From: "Don
Ewers" <dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>To: "Real Traders"
<realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>Sent: Friday, September 28, 2001 1:48
PMSubject: [RT] Bonds> Dorthy,> You have repeatly
mentioned that you thought DEc bonds will reach 98(which> I would
tend to agree with direction wise, once the apparent market
lowsare> in).> But before that happens, is it possible the
bonds go higher, first?>> Attached is what AGET is showing
currently.>> The 60min, I went to "short term count" and the
5/17 oscillator since the> 5/35> and 10/70 oscillators have
both lost control (in the original count andlong> term>
counts). It indicates bonds are possibly headed higher and they are in
a> wave 3 (a wave 4 correction will occur along the way at
some> point). The MOB above has not been reached (doesn't mean it has
to, it is> just a target that if reached would provide some
resistance). I what if'ed> in the first two hours
today.>> The daily chart says 5 waves are in but the MOB was
not reached and ifthere> is a new count down (1? and 2?) the the
wave 2 went way too high? I am> thinking that the prior drop
was minor wave 4 of wave 5? So again bonds> could move>
higher. I what ifed in todays action so far (106-02 high).>>
The weekly says we have yet to complete wave 5 also. The MOB there
is> substantially higher (off of a different pivot, the old high in
1998).Looks> to me like we also> are putting in a weekly
inside bar.>> So just a thought, that we could move higher,
before we go lower.>> I would be interested in any thoughts on
a spike move up at least to a new> "current" high above 107-01
please. If a double top spike top on the> weekly's were to occur,
well that would be a gift for all of us (to sell),> but highly
unlikely, that was a LTC thing.> don
ewers>>>>> To unsubscribe from this
group, send an email to:>
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