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Re: [RT] Bonds



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I think you will see sell the news either way as 
1/2 pt is priced in already.. also key to watch the US$... once it rolls over 
which it surely could again you will see foreign sellers come in again on long 
end... with concerns of USA going into deficit spending you are seeing the pros 
move to short end.. and Swissy is safe haven vs US$  in war 
time..
so plenty reason to be nervous about this leg up 
in bonds.... while it is possible they go a bit further... I don't have vol from 
yesterday but would guess this rally continues on lite vol which would be 
caution sign...
<BLOCKQUOTE 
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
  ----- Original Message ----- 
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From: 
  Lee Morris 
  
  To: <A 
  href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx"; 
  title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
  Sent: Tuesday, October 02, 2001 11:32 
  AM
  Subject: RE: [RT] Bonds
  
  Just 
  trying to figure out what senerio would make the equities go down to retest 
  and bonds to roll over as suggested on the prev chart. If the fed only cut 1/4 
  then equities will be disapointed in the short term and head for the retest 
  and bonds would soften as the cycle may be close to ending. just thinking and 
  typing. any other thoughts
  
    <FONT face=Tahoma 
    size=2>-----Original Message-----From: Don Ewers 
    [mailto:dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]Sent: Tuesday, October 02, 2001 
    11:17 AMTo: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: Re: 
    [RT] BondsDorthy,In the FWIW department the 
    short term count on the 60min chart in AGET (andthe 5/17 oscillator) 
    indicated a further move up which materialized today itwould appear. 
    Attached is a 60min chart with the first two hours todayshowing 
    the  prices rallied up to the MOB so far today?I will update 
    the daily and weekly after todays fed move, to see if thereare any good 
    indications the higher level MOB's there are possible.Point being 
    when this thing has run its course it will be a great short withall this 
    stimulus?don ewers----- Original Message -----From: "Don 
    Ewers" <dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>To: "Real Traders" 
    <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>Sent: Friday, September 28, 2001 1:48 
    PMSubject: [RT] Bonds> Dorthy,> You have repeatly 
    mentioned that you thought DEc bonds will reach 98(which> I would 
    tend to agree with direction wise, once the apparent market 
    lowsare> in).> But before that happens, is it possible the 
    bonds go higher, first?>> Attached is what AGET is showing 
    currently.>> The 60min, I went to "short term count" and the 
    5/17 oscillator since the> 5/35> and 10/70 oscillators have 
    both lost control (in the original count andlong> term> 
    counts). It indicates bonds are possibly headed higher and they are in 
    a> wave 3 (a wave 4 correction will occur along the way at 
    some> point). The MOB above has not been reached (doesn't mean it has 
    to, it is> just a target that if reached would provide some 
    resistance). I what if'ed> in the first two hours 
    today.>> The daily chart says 5 waves are in but the MOB was 
    not reached and ifthere> is a new count down (1? and 2?) the the 
    wave 2 went way too high?  I am> thinking that the prior drop 
    was minor wave 4 of wave 5?  So again bonds> could move> 
    higher. I what ifed in todays action so far (106-02 high).>> 
    The weekly says we have yet to complete wave 5 also. The MOB there 
    is> substantially higher (off of a different pivot, the old high in 
    1998).Looks> to me like we also> are putting in a weekly 
    inside bar.>> So just a thought, that we could move higher, 
    before we go lower.>> I would be interested in any thoughts on 
    a spike move up at least to a new> "current" high above 107-01 
    please. If a double top spike top on the> weekly's were to occur, 
    well that would be a gift for all of us (to sell),> but highly 
    unlikely, that was a LTC thing.> don 
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