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If Q2 is flat or minus which is PRE 911 data...then that could concern
markets. Most economists have concluded that the recent tragic events will
greatly slow down and push out any economic recovery. It would make sense
then,that if economy was weaker than we think pre 911 then there is the
potential for a deeper & longer recession......... I have target on Dec Bond
down to 98.04 and don't think the long bond will necessarily go up if the
stocks start a new leg down soon as expected. I still see potential for not
only insurance co's selling bonds but also foreign investors repatriating
funds back to their homelands.. so...I suspect that since mtge rates track
the longer end vs short end that refinancing of homes is not going to be as
attractive a option in the future..Greenspan voiced concern over the last
couple weeks about the credit spread with corp bonds which would also
predict a deeper recession may be in store. From the cycle work I follow
this downturn is not the normal every 11 yr economic downturn... This is
the first major GLOBAL economic downturn since the global alliances have
banned together creating WTO... I do believe that Japan is finally going to
get their act together but most of their restructuring won't be in place
until next year so that slows down the recovery process. You may recall
that Greenspan last March indicated that the U.S. economy could not improve
greatly until the economies of our major trading partner's economies
improve..... ..... and yes not all stocks go up or down but I can tell you
having lived in Alaska for 27 yrs that only Salmon are good at swimming
upstream............. best, :-) :-)
----- Original Message -----
From: "Ira Tunik" <irat@xxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Thursday, September 27, 2001 8:05 PM
Subject: Re: [RT] INDU
> I don't know what effect GDP for Q2 will have but if the market follows it
usual
> course it will go based upon perception. The WTC and reduced economic
growth
> should be in the current price of the markets. Now it is time to see what
the
> investors feel will be the case as they look into the future. The
unemployment
> numbers will be worse then 1992 and that number will grow. Interest
rates are
> low which will allow some to refinance their homes at lower rates and the
> current increased value. Of course this is a two edged sword as most
things in
> the markets are. Only time and the charts will tell. No matter how bad
or good
> things get there are always stocks that go up and others that go down, so
there
> is something for both the bulls and the bears. You never see all stocks
up or
> down. Ira.
>
> "Dorothy K. Carter" wrote:
>
> > I agree that tomorrow will be key.... The problem is with the last
several
> > days rally actually in my work has given sell signals......... so I
don't
> > view it as bullish..
> > that is on top of LIndsay work and other things I follow.. so we'll
see...
> > As posted earlier I think 8:31AM once GDP Q2 is out we'll have a clue
if
> > tomorrow is going to be a big up day or a big down day.......
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Ralph Volpe" <rjv@xxxxxxxxxx>
> > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Sent: Thursday, September 27, 2001 7:31 PM
> > Subject: [RT] INDU
> >
> > > I posted a Dow chart recently and pointed out that this week was
> > > critical for the purpose of determining the direction of the next
larger
> > > move. I said that price had penetrated below major support and that it
> > > had to roll back up this week to reenter the pattern it broke out of
or
> > > the market will dramatically move lower. Well, as seen by the attached
> > > chart, price has rolled back somewhat, but it still has to reenter the
> > > pattern by tomorrow. In essence, the Dow needs to rise by better than
> > > 170 points by the close tomorrow for the September monthly bar not to
> > > show a major break below support. I feel that there will be a
> > > substantial run higher tomorrow, but that remains to be seen.
> > >
> > > --
> > > Ralph => E-mail => rjv@xxxxxxxxxx
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> > >
> > >
> > >
> >
>
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