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The system also gives a stop. What it means is that 80% of the time price will
reach the first price objective and 20% of the time it will take the stop out.
It will reach the second price objective 70% of the time and take the stop out
30% of the time. Of course if you raise/lower your stop to the first price
objective you retain that profit. In contra trend trades price will usually
reverse at the first price objective. I hope that this helps you better
understand where the percentages come from. Ira.
Don Ewers wrote:
> Ira,
> Can you help me understand how "a 1st price objective is met 80% of the
> time and a 2nd objective 70% of the time and a 3rd objective 60% of the
> time"?
>
> I am used to things that add up to100%, so I am obviously missing something,
> can you elaborate on the percentages.
> don ewers
>
> P.S.- I am more use to (for example in AGET) they say a wave 3 is under the
> length of wave 1 2% of the time, between 1.0 and 1.60 15% of the time,
> between 1.60 and 1.75 45% of the time, between 1.75 and 2.62 30% of the time
> (which means between 1.60 and 2.62 75% of the time!), greater than 2.62 8%
> of the time, totallng 100%
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Ira Tunik" <irat@xxxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Thursday, September 27, 2001 5:49 PM
> Subject: Re: [RT] DEc S&P
>
> > The system that I developed projects 3 price objectives. After years of
> use and
> > tracking, the trades given by the entry signal I found that the price
> reached
> > the 1st price objective 80% of the time, the second objective 70% of the
> time
> > and the 3rd price objective 60% of the time. Some of my students have
> gotten
> > better results then this, but all I can go by is what I myself have been
> able to
> > accomplish. Ira.
> >
> > Jim White wrote:
> >
> > > Don & Ira,
> > > Could you please explain how you derive a probability for a projected
> > > price.
> > > Thanks,
> > > Jim White
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: "Don Thompson" <detomps@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > Sent: Thursday, September 27, 2001 10:58 AM
> > > Subject: Re: [RT] DEc S&P
> > >
> > > > My all average low for a down close is 1001.00 It is about 75%
> chance.
> > > > Since my up close scenario had no chance for a lower low, there is a
> high
> > > > probability that
> > > > S&P will close down.
> > > > My tightest query is a down close.
> > > > Don
> > > >
> > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > From: "Ira Tunik" <irat@xxxxxxxxx>
> > > > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > Sent: Thursday, September 27, 2001 7:44 AM
> > > > Subject: Re: [RT] DEc S&P
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > > By the way 998 is a 60% number for this move down.
> > > > >
> > > > > Don Thompson wrote:
> > > > >
> > > > > > Ira,
> > > > > > I have found that odds of greater than 80 percent have a good
> chance
> > > of
> > > > > > happening,
> > > > > > if they don't usually a forcefull opposite expectation occures.
> 60%
> > > is
> > > > > > mildy bullish, if it is accompanied
> > > > > > by 70 to80% higher highs.. :) then you could expect it to happen.
> > > > > > Don
> > > > > >
> > > > > > > Well we got 1017 in the night session and that was the best that
> it
> > > > could
> > > > > > do
> > > > > > > for the maybe never came to pass.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Ira Tunik wrote:
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > Looks a rally to 1016 and then maybe 1022. Only a 60%
> probability
> > > > of
> > > > > > > > 1022.
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
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