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I wouldn't hold my breath on the 2QGDP final revision. The first
number came out at .7 then was revised down to .2 last month. All
the components are known and the final tally should be very close to
the .1 expected. Remember 2Q GDP is now 3 months old. Its dated and
irrelevant. Everyone is now concerned with the immediate effect of
911 and the repercussions down the chain even globally. The weekly
jobless, sales and the company warnings should be of ultimate
concern. Next week's payrolls will be a difficult read because the
country was frozen in mid-Sep and surely nobody gives a hoot about
the upcoming inflation data either.
--- In realtraders@xxxx, "Dorothy K. Carter" <dorothy.carter@xxxx>
wrote:
> If Q2 is flat or minus which is PRE 911 data...then that could
concern
> markets. Most economists have concluded that the recent tragic
events will
> greatly slow down and push out any economic recovery. It would
make sense
> then,that if economy was weaker than we think pre 911 then there is
the
> potential for a deeper & longer recession......... I have target on
Dec Bond
> down to 98.04 and don't think the long bond will necessarily go up
if the
> stocks start a new leg down soon as expected. I still see
potential for not
> only insurance co's selling bonds but also foreign investors
repatriating
> funds back to their homelands.. so...I suspect that since mtge
rates track
> the longer end vs short end that refinancing of homes is not going
to be as
> attractive a option in the future..Greenspan voiced concern over
the last
> couple weeks about the credit spread with corp bonds which would
also
> predict a deeper recession may be in store. From the cycle work I
follow
> this downturn is not the normal every 11 yr economic downturn...
This is
> the first major GLOBAL economic downturn since the global alliances
have
> banned together creating WTO... I do believe that Japan is finally
going to
> get their act together but most of their restructuring won't be in
place
> until next year so that slows down the recovery process. You may
recall
> that Greenspan last March indicated that the U.S. economy could not
improve
> greatly until the economies of our major trading partner's economies
> improve..... ..... and yes not all stocks go up or down but I can
tell you
> having lived in Alaska for 27 yrs that only Salmon are good at
swimming
> upstream............. best, :-) :-)
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Ira Tunik" <irat@xxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxx>
> Sent: Thursday, September 27, 2001 8:05 PM
> Subject: Re: [RT] INDU
>
>
> > I don't know what effect GDP for Q2 will have but if the market
follows it
> usual
> > course it will go based upon perception. The WTC and reduced
economic
> growth
> > should be in the current price of the markets. Now it is time to
see what
> the
> > investors feel will be the case as they look into the future. The
> unemployment
> > numbers will be worse then 1992 and that number will grow.
Interest
> rates are
> > low which will allow some to refinance their homes at lower rates
and the
> > current increased value. Of course this is a two edged sword as
most
> things in
> > the markets are. Only time and the charts will tell. No matter
how bad
> or good
> > things get there are always stocks that go up and others that go
down, so
> there
> > is something for both the bulls and the bears. You never see all
stocks
> up or
> > down. Ira.
> >
> > "Dorothy K. Carter" wrote:
> >
> > > I agree that tomorrow will be key.... The problem is with the
last
> several
> > > days rally actually in my work has given sell signals.........
so I
> don't
> > > view it as bullish..
> > > that is on top of LIndsay work and other things I follow.. so
we'll
> see...
> > > As posted earlier I think 8:31AM once GDP Q2 is out we'll
have a clue
> if
> > > tomorrow is going to be a big up day or a big down day.......
> > >
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: "Ralph Volpe" <rjv@xxxx>
> > > To: <realtraders@xxxx>
> > > Sent: Thursday, September 27, 2001 7:31 PM
> > > Subject: [RT] INDU
> > >
> > > > I posted a Dow chart recently and pointed out that this week
was
> > > > critical for the purpose of determining the direction of the
next
> larger
> > > > move. I said that price had penetrated below major support
and that it
> > > > had to roll back up this week to reenter the pattern it broke
out of
> or
> > > > the market will dramatically move lower. Well, as seen by the
attached
> > > > chart, price has rolled back somewhat, but it still has to
reenter the
> > > > pattern by tomorrow. In essence, the Dow needs to rise by
better than
> > > > 170 points by the close tomorrow for the September monthly
bar not to
> > > > show a major break below support. I feel that there will be a
> > > > substantial run higher tomorrow, but that remains to be seen.
> > > >
> > > > --
> > > > Ralph => E-mail => rjv@xxxx
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
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> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
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> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > >
> >
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