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The system that I developed projects 3 price objectives. After years of use and
tracking, the trades given by the entry signal I found that the price reached
the 1st price objective 80% of the time, the second objective 70% of the time
and the 3rd price objective 60% of the time. Some of my students have gotten
better results then this, but all I can go by is what I myself have been able to
accomplish. Ira.
Jim White wrote:
> Don & Ira,
> Could you please explain how you derive a probability for a projected
> price.
> Thanks,
> Jim White
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Don Thompson" <detomps@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Thursday, September 27, 2001 10:58 AM
> Subject: Re: [RT] DEc S&P
>
> > My all average low for a down close is 1001.00 It is about 75% chance.
> > Since my up close scenario had no chance for a lower low, there is a high
> > probability that
> > S&P will close down.
> > My tightest query is a down close.
> > Don
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Ira Tunik" <irat@xxxxxxxxx>
> > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Sent: Thursday, September 27, 2001 7:44 AM
> > Subject: Re: [RT] DEc S&P
> >
> >
> > > By the way 998 is a 60% number for this move down.
> > >
> > > Don Thompson wrote:
> > >
> > > > Ira,
> > > > I have found that odds of greater than 80 percent have a good chance
> of
> > > > happening,
> > > > if they don't usually a forcefull opposite expectation occures. 60%
> is
> > > > mildy bullish, if it is accompanied
> > > > by 70 to80% higher highs.. :) then you could expect it to happen.
> > > > Don
> > > >
> > > > > Well we got 1017 in the night session and that was the best that it
> > could
> > > > do
> > > > > for the maybe never came to pass.
> > > > >
> > > > > Ira Tunik wrote:
> > > > >
> > > > > > Looks a rally to 1016 and then maybe 1022. Only a 60% probability
> > of
> > > > > > 1022.
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
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