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Jim,
It basicly requires knowing astrology and having a working knowledge of
voodoo... LOL.
It "simply" pattern match out of the historical data base of futres and NYSE
internals. No holds
bared kind of analysis.. I can tell you that querys that result in 50 to 80
hits are worthless, they all
come in around 45 to 55% or so. not worth anything at all. much like a 60%
probability.
So narrowed querys resulting in a truely fine fit are the best. I had only
one yesterday and it forecast
a lower close, would hardly move above the opening price, would not go very
far above yesterdays close and
would have about a 15 point range. This does not happen every day.
It took me about three to four months to come up with not only the data but
the query method to
obtain decent pattern matching protocol. I have refined it over a period of
a couple of years.
I have a big spread sheet the does most of the calculations but it is not
automated.. tsk tsk.
The result is a set of probabilities for gap up or gap down open,
probabiltiy of higher high, lower low reletive to the previous days range.
Probable range of the next day.
probable chance of an up or down close.
I can't really give you a forecast like Ira can of reaching this or that
level. close...
Don Thompson
----- Original Message -----
From: "Jim White" <jwhite43@xxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Thursday, September 27, 2001 9:23 AM
Subject: Re: [RT] DEc S&P
> Don & Ira,
> Could you please explain how you derive a probability for a projected
> price.
> Thanks,
> Jim White
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Don Thompson" <detomps@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Thursday, September 27, 2001 10:58 AM
> Subject: Re: [RT] DEc S&P
>
>
> > My all average low for a down close is 1001.00 It is about 75% chance.
> > Since my up close scenario had no chance for a lower low, there is a
high
> > probability that
> > S&P will close down.
> > My tightest query is a down close.
> > Don
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Ira Tunik" <irat@xxxxxxxxx>
> > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Sent: Thursday, September 27, 2001 7:44 AM
> > Subject: Re: [RT] DEc S&P
> >
> >
> > > By the way 998 is a 60% number for this move down.
> > >
> > > Don Thompson wrote:
> > >
> > > > Ira,
> > > > I have found that odds of greater than 80 percent have a good chance
> of
> > > > happening,
> > > > if they don't usually a forcefull opposite expectation occures. 60%
> is
> > > > mildy bullish, if it is accompanied
> > > > by 70 to80% higher highs.. :) then you could expect it to happen.
> > > > Don
> > > >
> > > > > Well we got 1017 in the night session and that was the best that
it
> > could
> > > > do
> > > > > for the maybe never came to pass.
> > > > >
> > > > > Ira Tunik wrote:
> > > > >
> > > > > > Looks a rally to 1016 and then maybe 1022. Only a 60%
probability
> > of
> > > > > > 1022.
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
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