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Don & Ira,
Could you please explain how you derive a probability for a projected
price.
Thanks,
Jim White
----- Original Message -----
From: "Don Thompson" <detomps@xxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Thursday, September 27, 2001 10:58 AM
Subject: Re: [RT] DEc S&P
> My all average low for a down close is 1001.00 It is about 75% chance.
> Since my up close scenario had no chance for a lower low, there is a high
> probability that
> S&P will close down.
> My tightest query is a down close.
> Don
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Ira Tunik" <irat@xxxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Thursday, September 27, 2001 7:44 AM
> Subject: Re: [RT] DEc S&P
>
>
> > By the way 998 is a 60% number for this move down.
> >
> > Don Thompson wrote:
> >
> > > Ira,
> > > I have found that odds of greater than 80 percent have a good chance
of
> > > happening,
> > > if they don't usually a forcefull opposite expectation occures. 60%
is
> > > mildy bullish, if it is accompanied
> > > by 70 to80% higher highs.. :) then you could expect it to happen.
> > > Don
> > >
> > > > Well we got 1017 in the night session and that was the best that it
> could
> > > do
> > > > for the maybe never came to pass.
> > > >
> > > > Ira Tunik wrote:
> > > >
> > > > > Looks a rally to 1016 and then maybe 1022. Only a 60% probability
> of
> > > > > 1022.
> > > > >
> > > > >
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