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Don:
I think one needs to classify the gaps in the environment in which each
occurs. That is, classifying the gap in terms of it's being in a bull or
bear trend is of utmost importance.
For example, the data I have on Spoos for bear trend gaps is as follows:
Bear Mkt Gaps=184 (37.2%)
GapUp=86 (17.4%): Retr Prev Cl=72 (83.7%) Retr Prev HiLo=51 (59.3%)
Cls>Open=27 (31.4%) Cls>PrevCls=41 (47.7%)
So a gap up in our present situation occurs only 17% of the time. It
retraces to the previous close 84% of the time and closes higher than the
open only 31% of the time.
So trading a bear trend gap down is more likely to be profitable. The trend
is your friend. Determining the trend is the trick sometimes.
dr
----- Original Message -----
From: "Don Thompson" <detomps@xxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Thursday, May 31, 2001 12:42 AM
Subject: Re: [RT] Re: MKT - OEX
oh,,,
I see where you are confused... sorry ...
I am not saying that if there is a gap up tomorrow morning that 80 percent
of the time there will be a higher close.
I am looking at a data base that looks at a narrowly defined set of
parameters. If you made your data base to about
87 or 88 and narrowly defined what today looks like at the close you would
find what I find. I think I have given
you enough information to figure it out.
so we will see, If it gaps up there is a good chance it will close higher,
why because 80% of the time with a close like today
that is what it does.
Don
----- Original Message -----
From: "'Lucky Bastard'" <hadrada@xxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Thursday, May 31, 2001 1:16 AM
Subject: Re: [RT] Re: MKT - OEX
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Don Thompson" <detomps@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Thursday, May 31, 2001 12:43 AM
> Subject: Re: [RT] Re: MKT - OEX
>
>
> : Hmm,
> : Well, I have been doing this for two and a half years and it works,
>
> Let's see some proof, then.
>
> : Turd station cant do the kind of query that I do in excell.
>
> Let's see some statistics then.
>
> : Sorry, your analysis is just too simple.
>
> What? How more complex can that be? You claim that if the S&P futures gap
up
> on the open, it will close at a higher price 80% of the time. And if it
> dips, it's gives you a better price to enter a trade. So, why not buy it
on
> the open (if it's a gap up open) and then exit at the end of the day. If
> it's an up close, then it should be profitable. So, how is this analysis
too
> simple?
>
>
>
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>
>
>
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>
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