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What I meant to say was: trading a bear trend gap up is more likely to be
profitable to the downside in the direction of the trend.
However, the fact that the close being higher than the previous close is a
greater liklihood than the close being higher than the present open would
indicate the tendency for the trend to weaken as it becomes oversold. Or it
could mean... .
dr
----- Original Message -----
From: "Don Roos" <rosewood@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Thursday, May 31, 2001 1:37 AM
Subject: Re: [RT] Re: MKT - OEX
Don:
I think one needs to classify the gaps in the environment in which each
occurs. That is, classifying the gap in terms of it's being in a bull or
bear trend is of utmost importance.
For example, the data I have on Spoos for bear trend gaps is as follows:
Bear Mkt Gaps=184 (37.2%)
GapUp=86 (17.4%): Retr Prev Cl=72 (83.7%) Retr Prev HiLo=51 (59.3%)
Cls>Open=27 (31.4%) Cls>PrevCls=41 (47.7%)
So a gap up in our present situation occurs only 17% of the time. It
retraces to the previous close 84% of the time and closes higher than the
open only 31% of the time.
So trading a bear trend gap down is more likely to be profitable. The trend
is your friend. Determining the trend is the trick sometimes.
dr
----- Original Message -----
From: "Don Thompson" <detomps@xxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Thursday, May 31, 2001 12:42 AM
Subject: Re: [RT] Re: MKT - OEX
oh,,,
I see where you are confused... sorry ...
I am not saying that if there is a gap up tomorrow morning that 80 percent
of the time there will be a higher close.
I am looking at a data base that looks at a narrowly defined set of
parameters. If you made your data base to about
87 or 88 and narrowly defined what today looks like at the close you would
find what I find. I think I have given
you enough information to figure it out.
so we will see, If it gaps up there is a good chance it will close higher,
why because 80% of the time with a close like today
that is what it does.
Don
----- Original Message -----
From: "'Lucky Bastard'" <hadrada@xxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Thursday, May 31, 2001 1:16 AM
Subject: Re: [RT] Re: MKT - OEX
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Don Thompson" <detomps@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Thursday, May 31, 2001 12:43 AM
> Subject: Re: [RT] Re: MKT - OEX
>
>
> : Hmm,
> : Well, I have been doing this for two and a half years and it works,
>
> Let's see some proof, then.
>
> : Turd station cant do the kind of query that I do in excell.
>
> Let's see some statistics then.
>
> : Sorry, your analysis is just too simple.
>
> What? How more complex can that be? You claim that if the S&P futures gap
up
> on the open, it will close at a higher price 80% of the time. And if it
> dips, it's gives you a better price to enter a trade. So, why not buy it
on
> the open (if it's a gap up open) and then exit at the end of the day. If
> it's an up close, then it should be profitable. So, how is this analysis
too
> simple?
>
>
>
> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
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>
>
>
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>
>
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