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If you spend the money and buy the book, the proof is there with percentages and
time periods, etc. Of course you would rather make jokes and sport at anything
you don't understand or believe in. I am a little more open minded. You use
your random numbers and I will keep checking out the Delta system. It has stood
me in good stead the past week or two since I started looking into it again. I
had a high probability of knowing where the turns would come and what I could
look for 8 to 10 days out. It has put money in my pocket. I will use in
conjunction with Hurst, which you probably don't believe in either, and I will
take the money and say, thank you very much. Ira.
d graham wrote:
> Thanks Dennis for putting it so elegantly, I was obviously being very
> "tongue in cheek" with my posts, but my point was exactly that - for example
> my next "R-point" is next wednesday. Give it +/- 2 days and the chances are
> pretty good there will be a turning point next week. No turning point - then
> it must be an "inversion" or "continuation".
>
> And to answer Ira since I believe the comment about plane (sic) nastiness
> was directed about me- I have nothing against planes, and I actually thought
> my posts were pretty funny and not in any way nasty. And to answer Ira's
> point about random numbers working over an extended period of time - where
> is the proof that Delta works any better than say, choosing every wednesday
> +/- 2 days
>
> dave
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "DH" <catapult@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Wednesday, May 23, 2001 1:55 PM
> Subject: Re: [RT] DA moon and Delta
>
> > > So just for fun, I
> > > just chose 4 dates in the last 4 weeks - april 23, may 1, 7, 17 and
> > > then chose a commodity TY M1. I placed the stars on the dates - pretty
> > > impressive!
> >
> > Yep. At the risk of getting in trouble again for trying to inject a
> > little logic into an emotional topic, let's think about it a little. The
> > key is that +/- 2 days. Usually, I've seen trading days used for that,
> > so that's 5 trading days total, or a week, or a quarter of a lunar
> > cycle. If we look at all 4 phases of the moon, we've covered the whole
> > month. If we only look at one phase, such as the new moon, that focuses
> > it tighter but, if we are willing to accept several different events as
> > significant, it still can hardly miss. Bear with me here....
> >
> > New moon +/- 2 trading days (25% of the month covered)
> >
> > 25% chance of a high during the period by random chance
> > 25% chance of a low during the period by random chance
> > -------------------
> > 50% chance of a high or a low by random chance within +/- 2 days
> >
> > Now, if we can find 2 more conditions we consider significant, say a
> > "continuation" and [I don't know what else], we have a 100% chance of
> > "something" happening within +/- 2 days of the new moon.
> >
> > Just to be clear, I'm not claiming there is nothing to the moon effect
> > or the planet effect or the sunspot effect. It's just that we need to be
> > careful how we test it or we can fall into a statistical "can't miss"
> > trap that reinforces what we already want to believe.
> >
> > Eyeballing the chart for correlations is particularly deceptive. System
> > traders learn early on that the eye is easily fooled. Plot your favorite
> > system as an indicator and your attention focuses in on the "good"
> > events and totally misses many of the "bad" events. You will swear the
> > system is nearly perfect. It's only when you run the statistics that you
> > find all those times it didn't work as expected.
> >
> > --
> > Dennis
> >
> > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >
> >
> >
> > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> >
> >
>
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