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On Tuesday, May 22, 2001, 12:51:33 PM, Alexander Levitin wrote:
AL> Time and again you are trying to inject scientific (or even common
AL> sense) thinking into trading.
I admit to that. :-)
AL> That would leave no place to the poetry of trading.
I don't admit to that. :-) Perhaps you misunderstand my post. I think
there is lots of 'poetry' in trading. But it depends on what you call
poetry. To the extent that 'poetry' implies 'judgement' and/or
'intuition', I think even discretionary traders can be considered
poetic. So can analysts that don't even trade.
There is little 'poetry' in a computer trading program. However, the
ideas behind the code may be great poetry. In many ways, there is room
for poetry in trading.
AL> I am absolutely sure that when Sun crosses the Moon there was a
AL> top in some market during the past century (maybe several of
AL> tops).
Given *enough* markets, this is statistically *very* likely. I would
stop short of "absolutely sure" (if = 100% probability).
AL> And if some one predict that top let him be proud for the
AL> rest of his life as I am proud of buying the absolute bottoms...
Only 'some' markets make a top. If he is trading ALL these markets
with that same signal, he might not do well at all. If only trading a
few, these may NOT be the ones making a top.
AL> The only one things that counts "how much money you make when you
AL> are right, and how much you did not loose when you are rong".
*This* was the topic of my post. A prediction posted ahead of time
either makes money or loses money, as you say. It makes no difference
how the trader made his decision - poetry or system or whatever.
The point of my post had to do with evaluating the performance of the
trades posted. The first thing most people would like to know is: how
much better (if any) he did compared to a coin flip. This has nothing
to do with the poetry of trading either. It is just examining the
results.
AL> Trader is not a scienist of the market, he is a soldier. Let him to be a
AL> poet too.
Let him be whatever he needs to be to succeed.
ztrader
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